I was reading one of the regular chartists (see my Chartists list), and thought I'd throw the following two charts out there. First, go see the original idea:. http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/
So, as inspired by Cyclical Market Analysis...
Sp'60min - bearish outlook
This assumes that the Friday afternoon 'surprise' was just a B (or whatever you want to call it) wave lower, and that there is one final C up-wave due early this week. If we somehow do get to 1395/1405 this week, it'll sure be one place for the current trapped bulls to exit.
This outlook would then assume we break below the recent low, with a prime target of around 1340, more likely in the week after this Friday opex.
Sp' daily, - bearish outlook
From the daily perspective, assuming we do indeed get a little C' wave up, and then proceed to 1340, what then? Well, maybe we'll cycle back up to form a right shoulder..forming a pretty obvious H/S formation. Will it be that simple in the weeks ahead? A break of 1340 in my view would likely take us down to 1270/50 pretty quickly. Whether we can stop there, or keep falling straight to the lower boundary of what is a giant wedge on the weekly/monthly cycles (see weekend postings), we'll just have to patiently wait and see.
Summary
Considering all the many weekly and monthly cycle charts which I have highlighted this weekend, the outlook is starting to look significantly bearish. However, as noted many times, the bears MUST see April close at current levels or better. It will be no good if we drop to 1340 and yet somehow still close over 1380/90 by month-end.
As I type...futures are sp' -2pts.
Goodnight..and good wishes for the trading week ahead.