Monday, 23 April 2012

1pm update - counting waves

The 60 minute cycle right now remains bearish, but was this morning merely the base of wave'1 or 3, or something else?

sp'60min cycle

*primary resistance for any bounce remains the 10MA, now down to 1372

I will probably post a few alternative 60min' counts after the close. Right now there is no hurry, or need to know what the count might be. The daily cycle projects at least 1340, so that's the key issue I am keeping in mind.

Looking ahead to the close

If market can't rally any higher than 1366, this really is a weak market, and we are sure to close significantly lower than the morning low of 1358.

The doomer bears who are looking for anything from 1325 to a 'flash crash' (yeah, there are always some touting that), for such lower targets to be achieved, we need more than just a dow -150 day. We would arguably need to see dow close -225/275 at least.

VIX looks like it has stabilised in the low 19s. a close in the 20s would be great, 21+ would be a VERY serious warning that something explosive could occur in the next few days.

More to always!