Thursday, 23 February 2012

VIX...floored (probably)

Okay, so I do the VIX post, only for today to see yet another truly stupid low-vol' melt up -after what was a minor opening 0.5 lower..

So today, the VIX hits almost exactly on the lower trend line that I projected - see chart.

Clearly, the bears do NOT wanna see VIX break into the15s. That would possibly signal that SP'1400+ is coming, contrary to everything many (even the mainstream clown channels) have been expecting.

No doubt the TVIX people are getting real edgy again, and who can blame them. Right now, the ultra stop would be a touch under the recent low of $14. There is certainly the threat of a further death-spiral melt down to..well, this thing could easily hit $10 if VIX breaks under 16 and trundles around for a few weeks.

Needing some 'big news/event'

Bears need a major 'issue' to trigger a proper market decline. The Europeans financials were really smashed up this morning, and yet again..the main market simply can't fall more than 0.75%. Even worse, the damn transport index looks like it might be floored on momentum cycle.

Right now, even sp'1300 looks a distant dream. Kinda ultra lame to admit that, but yes..1300..seems outta range near term.

I suppose a few might say 'be careful what you wish may get it'.

Frankly..I'm sick of waiting. Bring it.