I've read around so much recently, and a scenario which I myself also had, currently seems to be right back on target...
First..lets look at the weekly...
We have a channel floor/bounce target of 1320/25. The 10MA is currently 1323, and certainly offers a natural level to be drawn to.
The Consensus Scenario
The lower channel line of 1320 - by next week would make for a near perfect area for a wave'4 to conclude. 1300 would make for a better low. The wave'2 retrace was around 60pts...so, 1370 minus 60..gives us 1310 - right in the middle of the consensus '4 target range.
The transports - although just a 20 stock index, remains something to note, and the 'old leader'..has indeed probably been leading again - those Oil prices sure aren't helping. The Tran' has already broken way below the October low channel.
Equities rising into early Summer ?
Urghhh, I certainly hate to say it, but the consensus scenario would indeed suggest we retrace 3-5% in the coming 1-3 weeks, and then rise from 1300/20, to around 1400/20 by early June. In VIX terms, that should get us to at least 24/26.
I suppose its easily possible the final wave'5 could truncate, take just a week or two to conclude, and might not even put in a higher high (ala late July 2011). That would sure make for a great short opportunity though, especially on a 3-6 month basis into year end. Jan 2013 SPY Puts anyone?
What about Greece?
Mr Market still seems not to care. Maybe it'll care about $150 a barrel WTIC? Lets be clear though, no bear..not even the most ardent permabear can afford to attempt to ride out a move from a wave 4 retrace of sp'1300 to wave'5 completion around 1400. The doomers (myself included) - despite the endless doom-chatter, need to be even more mindful this coming March. Big down moves are coming, but from a wave count perspective, the bears may need to wait a few more months for any significant action.