Thursday, 19 May 2016

USD climbing on another rate threat

With the latest FOMC minutes effectively threatening a rate hike in June, the USD was back on the rise, managing a net daily gain of 0.7% into the DXY 95s. Next resistance is the 96.50/97.00 zone. An eventual break >100 looks probable and then onward to the 120s.

USD, daily

USD, monthly


It is highly notable that the monthly candle is (almost) of the bullish engulfing type, and that bodes for much higher levels this summer.

Broadly, the USD looks set to break and HOLD above the giant psy' level of DXY 100. That will arguably be the case regardless of what the maniacs at Print central decide to do.

.. and if we do indeed break >100.. what will the 'dollar doomers' say then? I'll continue to highlight Schiff (as I have today), but his negative outlook on the USD is simply... wrong.

Market/Fed chatter from.... Schiff

As ever... I don't agree with all of it.. but it merits highlighting.

WTIC, daily

A net daily decline of almost 1%, but having come close to the big psy' level of $50.00. Even a move to the $40 threshold won't break back under the 200dma.

I remain of the view that the over-supply issue remains completely unresolved, and there is no question that with prices close to $50, a fair number of wells will have been turned back on recently.

Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, phil' fed, and leading indicators.

*fed official Dudley is on the loose in the 10am hour.

Goodnight from London