Thursday, 19 May 2016

2pm update - Oil is not helping the equity bears

The reversal in oil is helping prop up the equity market, with Oil currently +0.2% in the $48s. No doubt the latest bounce from sp'2025 to 2037 is spooking some of the bears. However, with the floor decisively broken.. further downside seems a given, at least to the 2000/1990s.

USO, daily2



Regardless of the minor noise... it remains a series of lower highs... and lower lows since the sp'2111 high.

The bigger daily/weekly cycles are pretty clear... in terms of which direction we are headed into June.

re: VIX +6% in the 16.90s...  the 18s look tough.. unless <sp'2025 into the close.

notable strength, energy, KMI, daily

Currently +1.3%.. but still broadly stuck... a break to the 15s looks far more probable than a key break >$19.