Wednesday, 24 February 2016

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are significantly lower, sp -18pts, we're set to open at 1903. The USD is +0.4% in the DXY 97.80s. Metals are catching an obvious fear bid, Gold +$10. Oil is continuing to implode, -3.3% around the $30 threshold.



So... we're set to open around the 1900 threshold, and that is pretty important.

No doubt, Oil is a key market pressure... and last evening's API report (7 million build) was not good for the bulls.... the EIA is due at 10.30am this morning.

Best guess: market rallies after a morning low (typically around 11am), and pushes upward into end week and across early March.

early movers...

CHK +14% @ $2.50
GDX +2.2%... as Gold continues to rally
TVIX +8% in the $8.80s.. as VIX is set for 22s

Update from Mr C.

Who is effectively calling a short term top, with a straight move to around sp'1700.

Doomer chat, Hunter with Snyder of 'economic collapse blog'.

Overnight action

Japan: choppy, settling -0.8% @ 15915
China: climbing into the close, +0.8% @ 2928
Germany: currently -2.3% @ 9198

RE: Gold,    GLD, daily

As even Oscar notes, the recent Gold ramp from December is not for no reason. 'Something' is going on. Price structure is indeed a bullish pennant, with the big gap already filled. I'd be surprised if Gold doesn't first retrace to the red zone... equating to Gold $1180/70.

First big upside target for Gold is the $1300 threshold... which would be GLD $125s... around 6% higher.

If Gold can reach the $1400s.. or certainly the 1500s this spring/summer - as equities implode, then it would clarify that Dec'2015 was the long awaited multi-year low.

Have a good Wednesday

 9.35am.. sp'1899.. with VIX 22s.

Certainly... not pretty.. but overall market mood.. still isn't that bearish.

*Cramer talking that Dimon of JPM might need to 'average down'..... lol