Wednesday, 17 February 2016

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +12pts, we're set to open at 1907. USD is broadly flat in the DXY 96.80s. Metals are seeing a bounce, Gold +$5, with Silver +0.2%. Oil is +2.0%....  but still only in the $29s.



*it is notable that if we close net higher today, it'd be the first 3 day run of gains since late December.

Overnight minor declines have swung to what is a pretty important early gain.... back above the sp'1900 threshold.

A straight run to the 1920/30s is now clearly viable next week.

I also recognise that the 1940/50 zone is just about possible - via the daily cycle.... although the longer the bulls take... the harder it will get to hit.

early movers....

TVIX -4% @ $10.10s... the 8s seem likely if sp'1930/40s

BA +1.8% in the $114s. The 70s look probable on any renewed market upset.
CHK +3.8% @ $1.90s.... but that company is on the edge of disappearing.
GDX +1.2%... although a relatively minor retrace after yesterday's implosion.

Gold chatter, Hunter with Turk

Unlike many of the gold bugs though, I'm still not sure if we've seen a multi-year low. The $1300s this spring would be interesting... but then we still need to see a higher low.

Overnight action

Japan: unraveling into the close, -1.4% @ 15836
China: a closing hour hyper ramp, +1.1% @ 2867
Germany: currently building rather strong gains, +1.9% @ 9311. The 10K threshold is out of range in any bounce.... first big downside target remains the 2000/2007 double top of 8K.

Have a good Wednesday

8.38am... PPI m/m , +0.1%... vs. expected -0.2%.

I'd imagine some see this as positive news... but then that favours the notion of higher rates, and we know the market gets real upset at that.

.... FOMC mins' due at 2pm.