Friday, 19 February 2016

Looking ahead to March

It was a day of moderate chop for US equities, with the sp'500 swinging from an opening high of 1930 to 1915, and settling -8pts @ 1917. Broadly, higher levels still seem due in the current up wave from 1810. The setup for late March/April continues to favour the equity bears.




More than anything.. anyone seeking much lower levels this spring/summer should be aware of the multiple aspects of resistance from the sp'1950s to the giant psy' level of 2K.

Any daily closes above the 2000 threshold would be a core failure to the equity bears.

For now... I'm still holding to the original outlook, the 1600s, and then battling upward into year end... not least if the Fed initiates QE4

A real scary question is if the Fed would dare reverse its Dec' rate hike.... and eventually move to NIRP.. + QE4?

How might the market react to that?    Based on recent moves.. the financials would be very upset at NIRP... even if the printers are spooled up at print HQ.


Gold/Market chatter from Schiff.

Looking ahead

Friday will see the latest CPI. It will be OPEX, so expect increasing price action/chop in the late afternoon.

*Fed official Mester will be speaking on the 'economic outlook' in early morning.. and that might give the market an excuse to briefly cool to around 1900... before resuming higher.

Goodnight from London