Monday 8 February 2016

3pm update - rough start to the week

Regardless of the exact close, US equity indexes are set to close significantly lower for the second consecutive day. It is highly notable that the Nasdaq and the R2K have both broken below their Jan'20th lows. That sure doesn't bode well for the rest of the market into the spring.


Nasdaq comp', daily



R2K, daily


Summary

Clearly, today's declines are way lower than seemed possible last week.

The problem for anyone trying to go long for a Yellen bounce is that the Nasdaq and R2K are suggestive the rest of the market might follow.. this week.

In any case.. the broader mid term picture is down. We can agree on that much.. yes?
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re: VIX, +16% in the 27s... and relatively, I'd still argue this is somewhat subdued considering the indexes.

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3.18pm... another vain attempt to bounce.. 1828 to 1841... with VIX cooling to the 26s.

Broadly though.. it sure ain't pretty, and problem for the bulls is that Yellen is still a full day away.

notable strength: Cracker Barrel, +2.6% @ $130.   Lately, that seems to perform a lot better than main market.


3.32pm... a clear attempt to floor (yet again)...



... are the cheerleaders talking about a 'turnaround Tuesday' yet? I've got them on mute.


3.34pm.. a clear UPSIDE break.  Bears will be rushing to cover now.. VIX set to lose the 26s.

3.42pm.. and there is 1850... a full 22pts above the low from 2.30pm... very dynamic action..

Yellen is on her way..................


3.46pm... Fierce short-stop cascade.... sp'1856... 1.4% swing since 2.30pm....  

3.48pm.. notable strength, AAPL +1.6%... with sp'1859..  VIX 25s....