Wednesday, 24 February 2016

2pm update - an indirect signal

US equities remain moderately weak, but well above the morning low of sp'1891 (VIX 22.87). A daily close in the 1915/25 zone looks probable. Metals continue to cool from the earlier high, Gold +$13, with Silver +0.2%. Oil is helping turn market mood, +0.4%.



Suffice to add... equity bulls should be content with ANY close >1910. As it is.. the 1920s looks possible.. which would see the VIX turn red.

As for 'an indirect signal'....

I try to keep a few dozen individual company charts in mind.. some can offer underlying bearish/bullish signs of where the market is really headed.

This morning, I had eyes on QCOM. It had already rallied from the $42s to 51.

QCOM, daily

I'd considered picking up a micro long... but.... option call spreads were terrible at 10/15% wide, even for front month. Then there is the issue that I'd be buying into a broader downward trend... in a market that is liable to much lower levels this spring.

So.. I held off.

Anyway... the point is... QCOM looks set for the gap zone of 56/60.. where the 200dma is lurking.

.. a hit of 56/57s would (in theory) equate to sp'2K by mid March.

.. and that is just one reason why I'm not getting hysterically bearish in the near term.

back at 3pm