Wednesday, 20 January 2016

It sure isn't dull

It was another pretty wild day in market land, with pre-market gains of sp +30pts - at the equivalent of 1910, reversing to hit 1864 in the afternoon. The daily close of sp +1pt @ 1881, keeps the scenario of upside into the next FOMC on track.




Suffice to add, today was indeed pretty wild, and continues to reflect the underlying weakness that we've seen since late December.

Broadly... the trend is clearly much lower, but a bounce into next weeks FOMC looks very viable.. if not probable.

Shorting from the sp'1960s would be very attractive indeed, along with VIX 20/18 zone.

re: monthly3d: I remain of the view that the market will level out in the late spring/early summer around sp'1600. So long as we don't see any monthly closes <1600 (1500 to be decisive), the deflationary collapse scenario of sp'1000 or even 500s is still in the realm of fantasy land.

Looking ahead

Wednesday will see CPI and housing starts

*the EIA oil report is delayed until Thursday, due to the holiday.

Goodnight from London