Saturday, 16 January 2016

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -41pts @ 1880 (intra low 1857). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.6 % and -1.7% respectively. Near term outlook is very uncertain, as there is clearly threat of a giant Tuesday gap lower to the 1750/25 zone, whilst there is upside bounce risk to the 1940/60 zone.





Suffice to add, new multi-year lows in all US indexes.

Notably, the sp'500 broke the Aug'2015 low of 1867, with a new cycle low of 1857. There is soft support at the Oct'2014 low of 1820, but with far more significant support in the 1750/25 zone.

There is VERY serious threat of continued weakness, with short term capitulation in the 1700s next week.

The other scenario is a bounce into the next FOMC (Jan 27'th).. after that.. STILL renewed weakness to the 1700s.

What should be clear... regardless of any short term bounces, the broader trend is to the downside.

Closing update from Riley

a little more later...