Thursday, 7 January 2016

Closing Brief

US equities closed significantly lower for the third trading day of four this year, sp -47pts @ 1943. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -3.1% and -2.7% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued weakness to the sp'1920/00 zone. If the Friday close is at/near the lows.. Monday will likely see a mini-crash capitulation in the 1700s.



*closing hour action: a lot of chop, but with a new cycle low of 1938.

So... another day for the equity bears, and the mainstream are getting notably twitchy. There is increasing talk of 'the next 2008', the China upset, weak commodities, and just plain weak earnings.

Clearly though.. we're likely no more than a day or two away from a capitulation low.

The only issue is whether that is the sp'1920/00 zone... or a brief crashy washout in the 1700s.

**I have had a case of trader-paralysis for some days.

However, in the closing hour I did pick up a small block of TVIX. The actual stock.. not options. I have little tolerance lately, and rather than play VIX calls (notoriously problematic to offload in a market crash), I think I might get into the habit of meddling in TVIX as a VIX-long vehicle.

In any case... I'm on the short train... at least a little.

more later.... on the VIX