Wednesday, 20 January 2016

3pm update - trying to keep things in perspective

With price action increasingly wild - not least the earlier swing from sp'1812 to 1847 (for no good reason), it is getting a little difficult to keep things in perspective. However, the bigger weekly/monthly cycles sure help, with a viable short term target of sp'1750/25, and the grander 1600/1500s in April/May.




I think its fair to say many  - myself included, have been waiting for a bounce that just didn't come.

After trying to fine tune an intraday entry, I'm long the VIX, via TVIX, from sp'1844.. and VIX 28.70s.

All things considered, a target of sp'1780/70s, with VIX 36/38 does not look overly bold, whether tomorrow, Friday.. or early next week. It makes no real difference.

We are STILL due capitulation.

Right now, a daily close <1830 would be useful.. along with VIX >30

updates into the close....

3.18pm... sp'1866... now a full FIFTY FIVE points above the earlier low.

Urghh.. is that really it, or is it just a crazy ass short-stop cascade?

VIX remains broadly elevated in the 27s.. but that is a clear 5pts below the earlier high.

3.21pm.. A daily close >1870.. would be a real problem to those short.  Short term trend is broken..   urgh.

3.28pm.. Hyper-spike floor candles on the two leaders - Trans/R2K.

3.30pm. EXITED TVIX-long....  major fail.. as the market appears to be putting in a giant spike floor.

Seems no point holding short above sp'1870... VIX looking dire.. in danger of closing red.

3.35pm... The scary daily candle...

That is too bullish for my liking. sp'1812 makes little sense as a low... but it is.. what it is. 

3.49pm.. and now a swing from 1876 to 58.... another 0.8% within barely 30mins.

This market is really start to annoy me.

VIX rebounding, +7% inthe 27s... but that is still a long way from 32s.

back at the close......................