Wednesday, 20 January 2016

2pm update - just another intra bounce

Equities are seeing an intra bounce, with the sp' battling from a new multi-year low of sp'1812 to the 1840s. At the close of today, there will be soft declining trend/resistance at 1860. It should remain clear.. there still hasn't been any real capitulation, the 1700s remain due.




So.. Wednesday afternoon.. a little rally.. but overall.. its just the same tease we've seen since late December.

*ECB/Draghi is due tomorrow. Unless he literally spools up the printer tomorrow lunch time. there is little reason to believe the market will get hysterically bullish and begin a new up wave.

Current price action remains very unstable.. and the fact we've already broken the 1820 low remains notable.

Oil remains under severe pressure, -4.5% in the $27s.

notable hyper-reversal in...

TWTR, daily

I've no idea why.. but then.. are the 18s now to be touted as success?

*there will high threat of another strong reversal from 1845/50 zone in the 2pm hour.

A daily close >1860 looks extremely unlikely

2.04pm.. I've eyes on the micro 5min cycle... for sp'500 and VIX/TVIX.

A valid market re-short around 2.30/45 this hour....

2.12pm.. It continues to set up for a turn around 2.30pm.... with renewed equity weakness into the close.

I've eyes on TVIX....



Almost there..  in terms of time.. price.. sp'1850.. maybe.

2.24pm.. I am long the VIX, via TVIX, with sp'1844, and VIX 28.70.

Target exit is sp'1780/70s.. with VIX 36/38

*I've little stomach for dealing with options right now.. especially from these levels. TVIX for me seems a valid compromise.

Regardless... I'm involved.... now we'll see if we get those sp'1700s I've been babbling about since Jan' 1st.