Thursday, 7 January 2016

1pm update - VIX breaks a new high

Whilst equities have cooled back to the low sp'1960s, it is notable that the VIX has broken a new intra high of 23.88. The 25/26s look an easy target, if sp'1920/00 zone. It remains the case that any price action <1900 would likely lead to a very brief, but rather severe cascade to the 1700s.




So... VIX breaks a new high.. whilst the indexes continue to churn out what is arguably just another bear flag.

ohh, and I realise some are still bullish about the China circuit breaker issue, but then.. the 'breaker issue' is something I've occasionally noted for a few years.

Breakers unquestionably make the situation worse.

Ironically today, no one has brought up the issue that US breaker levels were tightened in the past year or two.

1.14pm.. Well, with a new low of 1953, the bear flag is already confirmed.... along with confirmation via VIX 24s.

A close in the 1940s is now pretty likely...with 1920/00 zone for the Friday open.

The ultimate issue is how Friday closes. A close near the low... and Monday will be likely crashy.

Mainstream are clearly getting twitchy..

 as Cramer is being dragged on for sporadic appearences during the day shows...