Tuesday, 26 January 2016

1600s or lower?

Once the current bounce concludes, the big issue will be how low can the next multi-week down cycle go? A basic target remains the sp'1750/25 zone.. with a broader target of the low 1600s. The price pattern/structure from May'2015 to the present is spookily similar to that of Oct'2007-July 2008. In theory... things are going to get real crazy this spring.


sp'weekly, 2008/09, MARCON


*for further details on my MARCON system, I'd merely suggest you go look at the other blog! All the details are there.

I could reel on for many pages about the current situation. Frankly, I'm tired though.. which is kinda scary, considering its only Monday.

In any case, first we need to see the current bounce from sp'1812 conclude. The issue in the immediate term is whether the bounce should be based on a time retrace starting from the sp'2116 (Nov'3rd) high or 2081 (Dec'29th).

sp'daily5b - two scenarios

It matters because we could be talking about 3-4 weeks of chop/upside, rather than maxing out later this week.

Based on the 2008/09 pattern.... we won't likely see the next rollover until mid February.

Update from Mr C.

Looking ahead

There is a fair bit of data tomorrow... Case-Shiller HPI, PMI serv', consumer con', Richmond Fed'

As for whether we floor in the 1600s or lower...

I don't have a time machine, I sure can't say for certain. Its all about the probabilities, right?

What I can say right now is that an exceptionally bearish price structure IS there. Indeed, the giant bear flag (call it a wave 2?) from Aug-Dec' has already been confirmed with new multi-year lows in most US/world markets.

The giant monthly cycles are increasingly in favour to the bears... with a technical setup soon to mirror that of Sept'2008.

We also have a number of black-swans ready to fly. There is Deutsche Bank, that would be a system threat to the EU. How would the ECB/Draghi react to that?

There are numerous corporates set to implode, not least those in the oil/gas and mining sectors.

With each day from here, I'll try my best to refine the targets - including the aspect of the time frame. As ever feel free to share your own thoughts/outlook.

Goodnight from London