Thursday, 19 November 2015

VIX seeing moderate chop

Whilst equity indexes closed moderately mixed, the VIX saw some moderate swings across the day (intra range 18.26 - 16.00), settling +0.8 @ 16.99. Near term outlook offers threat of a minor equity retrace, but broadly... the trend is strongly bullish into the sp'2100s... and VIX will likely be subdued in the low/sub teens.




*there remains a problem with the VIX computer, with sporadic flash-prints to the downside.

The key 20 threshold looks out of range in the near term.. and likely for rest of the month.

more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts @ 2081. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers threat of a minor retrace, but regardless of any such decline, the broader trend remains increasingly bullish... into the sp'2100s.



*closing hour action: continued micro chop, a touch of weakness into the close. Price structure on the smaller 15/60min cycles is offering a rather clear bull flag.

Little to add.. on what was a rather subdued day.

With opex tomorrow, aside from a few individual stock movers... it almost feels like the weekend is already here.

Meanwhile.. Joe Campbell is in the $2300s....

.. but more on that guy... later at 11pm EST.

more later.. on the VIX

3pm update - not exactly exciting, is it?

US equities remain moderately choppy, with only the R2K showing any notable action, -0.5%. USD remains in cooling mode, -0.6% in the DXY 98.90s. The weaker dollar is certainly helping the metals bounce, Gold +$11, with Silver +0.8%. Oil remains broadly weak, -0.4%.


R2K, daily


Its one of those days where I am even starting to struggle to settle on a post title.

Price action is increasingly subdued, as the market is consolidating the gains since Monday morning.

With opex tomorrow...  more chop... and regardless of any weakness into the sp'2070s... it will have been a week for the bulls.

notable strength, precious metal miners, GDX +3.1%, but in the grander picture... its minor noise.

back at the close

2pm update - twitchy VIX computer

US equities are fractionally higher, and the market has already confirmed a micro bull flag.. as especially reflected in stocks like INTC, AAPL, and DIS. Meanwhile... the VIX computer remains twitchy.. with sporadic nano-scale downside flash-prints.



Across the years we've seen all sorts of trouble with how the VIX is officially calculated.

Earlier this year the VIX was critically broken for a few days.

Since last Friday, we're seeing sporadic and brief spikes (usually to the downside), but always rebounding.

Someone at the CBOE needs to fix something... or at least try re-booting the server!


notable strength, NFLX

With Jessica Jones due... tomorrow at midnight :)

1pm update - INTC vs SQ

Whilst US equities trade in moderate chop mode, there is notable strength in Intel (INTC), +3.4% in the $34.20s. INTC is trading higher on news of a dividend raise (26 cents... from 24 cents per quarter).. and a broadly positive outlook for 2016. On the other side of the spectrum...  Square (SQ). No dividends... not much of anything.

INTC, weekly

SQ, daily


Without question.. INTC is one of the finest tech companies in the world.

Having floored in the primary target zone of $26/25 in Aug.. its already around 30% higher... and 6.6% higher for the month. The $40s look due... and long term.... far... far higher.

Or maybe you'd like to own some SQ instead?   

back at 2pm

12pm update - baby bull flag

US equities remain in chop mode, and are merely seeing a very minor retrace, with price structure offering a baby bull flag.. leading to the 2100s, whether tomorrow, or more likely next week. USD is increasingly weak, -0.8% in the DXY 98.80s, and that is helping the metals bounce, Gold +$14.


GLD, daily


*re: Gold. No doubt the floor callers are out there again.... now $1062 is their 'key low'.

A retrace to around 2070/65 looks viable... before resuming upward.

Clearly, we're going to close the week sig' higher, as market sentiment continues to improve with each day.

*something to keep in mind... next week is a 3.5 day trading week...  and such holiday conditions will favour algo-bot upside melt. 

VIX update from Mr T.

time for lunch :)

11am update - continued chop

US equities remain in chop mode... leaning a touch on the weaker side. There is clearly going to remain threat of increasing chop/weakness into the Friday opex, but regardless of the exact weekly close... the trend into December remains powerfully bullish.



As was the case in the 1871/2116 wave, there are going to be sporadic minor retraces...  but that is all they will likely be.

Even the sp'2050s now look out of range... not least if you are of the view that the wave from 2116-2019 was a sub'2. By definition, any subsequent wave'3 will keep pushing upward to 2116... with new historic highs by the Dec' FOMC.

Scary thought huh?

notable strength: AAPL, +0.8% in the $118s.

First target is the upper level of the gap zone.. 120/121.. where the 200dma is lurking. Those equity bull maniacs seeking new historic highs - and SUSTAINED broad market upside into spring 2016.. are going to need to see AAPL >$133.

time to shop... back soon

10am update - square and match nonsense

US equities open in minor chop mode, with the sp' in the upper 2080s. As the USD cools -0.5% in the DXY 99.10s, the metals are seeing a sig' bounce, Gold +$11. Meanwhile, new listings in Square and Match.


GLD, daily


As for the new listings of Square (SQ) and Match (MTCH) .... urgh.

More nonsense, neither company of which actually creates anything 'real'. In the new US economy, its mostly about sifting pennies off existing retail transactions, and anything else in the online world.

Give me a company that manufactures something REAL ! Hell, even IBM would be better.

notable weakness....

CHK -7%.. in the $5.50s...

The giant monthly cycle really shows the horror....

With commodities under broad downward pressure via the strong USD.... CHK is in serious trouble. Capitulation in the energy sector is coming. Not all of the familiar names will still be around by end 2016.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are a little higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open at 2087. The USD is cooling, -0.3% in the DXY 99.30s. Metals are seeing a bounce, Gold +$3. Oil remains weak, -1.4% in the $41s.


WTIC, weekly2


*The third consecutive red candle for Oil.  The $40 threshold remains key for Oil, if lost, it'll certainly put some downward pressure on the main market.

For the wave counters out there, if the move from 1871 to 2116 is wave'1... 245pts... do we just add 245pts to the Monday low of 2019 as a min' upside target for wave'3?

If so... that would suggest (at minimum) sp'2264.... in about 6-9 weeks time.

Overnight Asia action

Japan: +1.1%, solid gains, the big 20K threshold is imminent
China: +1.4% @ 3617..... morning chop, but then surging into the close.

Have a good Thursday

Bullish engulfing weekly candle?

Having seen a Monday opening low of sp'2019, the market continues to battle upward, with a Wed' gain of 33pts @ 2083. To achieve an extremely bullish engulfing weekly candle, the bull maniacs just need to claw another 13pts higher, to hit 2097.



Suffice to note.. the sp'2019 low looks extremely secure.

As I've feared for some weeks, sustained action under sp'2K looks unlikely. Now that we're already back in the 2080s, any remaining talk of 1900s.. or 1800s (from a few people) should vapourise.

There is ZERO reason to be broadly bearish right now, not least with the Oct' monthly close.

All that is missing are to see other world equity markets also close above their respective 10MAs... such as...

Germany - DAX

China - Shanghai comp'

Update from Mr C.


Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, phil' fed', leading indicators.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed significantly higher, sp +33pts @ 2083. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 1.6%. Near term outlook offers threat of a minor retrace, but broadly.. the 2100s look a given, with new historic highs into year end, highly probable.




Suffice to add... market ended the day on a particularly bullish note.

Regardless of any sporadic retrace.. the broader trend looks strongly bullish into the next FOMC of Dec'16th.

a little more later...