Tuesday, 29 December 2015

Submit your outlook for 2016

US equities look set to close the year very mixed, with the sp'500 fractionally higher, but the 'old leader' - Transports, is currently net lower by a very bearish -18%. Yet.. what about 2016? It is time to submit YOUR outlook for 2016.

sp'monthly6 - key scenarios for 2016


It remains the case that the equity bulls should be desperate to attain another monthly close above the monthly 10MA. Any close in the 2040s or lower, would be a real problem, and be highly suggestive the Aug' low will be tested within a few months.

As things are, I'm still guessing we'll manage sp'2080/90 for the Thursday/2015 close.

re: Scenario. I'm very biased toward C. It'd be great to see some serious market volatility in 2016 with a major washout to sp'1600/1550.

Current price action in the US - and many other world markets argues strongly against A.

.. and the central banks won't allow D, right?

Scenario B would be the rather boring outcome, maybe we'll see that?

Looking ahead

Tuesday will see Case-Schiller HPI and consumer confidence.

Your target/outlook for 2016

With just three trading days left of 2015..  I'm now open to taking your predictions for 2016.

Two aspects to submit (latter is optional)

Primary -  2016 year end target for the sp'500. Submit a specific number, rather than a range.

Secondary - anything else you want to note, whether another US/world index, a commodity, individual stock, or even an economic trend. No more than a paragraph or two. Brief notes only please!

How to submit...

The best way to submit a target (and any related notes)... is via the DISQUS comments system. If you don't yet have a DISQUS account... go get one. See HERE

You are free to email me (see CONTACT page - left column) but if you do... please let me know what 'display name' I should use, to go with your target/notes, for publishing.


1. Prize? The only prize is that of being more right than anyone else, not least yours truly!

2. I will publicly post your sp'500 target, along with your DISQUS name, Twitter handle, the website that you represent, OR any other name of your choice.

3. You are welcome to adjust/re-submit an entry up to midnight (UK) Jan'3rd 2016.

4. I aim to post the full list of entries the weekend of Jan 2/3 2016.

What is my target for end 2016?

I've not settled on a number yet, but it'll likely be dependent on whether US/world equity markets settle above.. or below their respective monthly 10MAs.

In addition to a post on the 2016 predictions, I will post a full review of the 2015 predictions, this coming weekend.

Goodnight from London