Friday, 7 August 2015

The Dow monthly is ugly

The Dow saw a sixth consecutive net daily decline, settling -120pts (0.7%) @ 17419, the lowest level since Feb 3rd. The bigger monthly cycle looks conclusively maxed out, with viable downside to the 16500/000 zone by early October.

Dow' monthly2

Dow'weekly1b - H/S scenario


*a notable red candle on the monthly 'rainbow' chart... the first since Sept'2011.

With severe technical breaks in stocks like AAPL and DIS, the Dow is a broken index, and looks headed for the 17000 threshold in the immediate term.

Price structure on the weekly cycle is a clear H/S formation, and is highly suggestive of the 17000 threshold before first opportunity of a bounce. Much lower levels look due across the next two months.

Looking ahead

Friday will center around the monthly jobs report. Mr Market is expecting net gains of 212k, with a headline jobless rate of 5.3%. Frankly, 212k looks set to be easily surpassed, 250/275 seems very viable, and would probably result in case of 'good news is bad news'.

Goodnight from London