Thursday, 6 August 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a little higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open at 2103. USD is similarly a touch higher, +0.1% in the DXY 98.00s. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$2. Oil is weak, -1.0% in the $44s.




So.. we're set to open back above the 2100 threshold.

Hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is set to turn negative this morning, and I do expect to see the sp'2080s at some point today.

The real issue is whether the market will see a sig' down day before the weekend... to test the 200dma.

Best guess.. a daily close <200dma (2072.. as of tomorrow)... with further weakness... at least to the 2050s. That should equate to VIX 15/16s.

early movers...

TSLA -5.6% in the $255s
FIT -11% in the $45s.. having initially seen an AH bounce to $55. Hysteria bubble... pops.
GMCR -30% @ $52... post earnings disaster

Update from a bearish Oscar

Overnight China action: The Shanghai comp' was moderately weak across the day, settling -0.9% @ 3661. Talk continues about how much the China leadership will be able to hold a floor in stocks of around 3500/3300... with 'no selling allowed' until 4300/4600. I'm still open to the notion of a brief washout down to 2500... if correct, the communists will be most upset.

Have a good Thursday

8.32am.. weekly jobs.. 270k... a touch under consensus. It points to a strong Friday jobs number...and as ever.. will it be a case of 'good news is bad news'.... or 'good news IS good news'.