Saturday, 1 August 2015

End month closings

It was a month for the equity bulls, with the sp'500 +2.0% @ 2103 (intra high 2132), whilst the Dow settled +0.4% @ 17690. Commodities were exceptionally weak in July, with WTIC Oil seeing an extreme net monthly decline of -20.8% in the $46s, whilst Copper collapsed -10.1% to $2.35.

Lets take a look at a few bits and pieces to close out the month...


A net monthly gain of around 2%, with an intra month high of 2132.. a mere 0.1% from breaking a new historic high. Like most other US indexes, the sp'500 has been stuck since February. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle continues to tick lower, and has been negative for five months. Best downside case is the lower monthly bollinger, which across Aug-Sept, will be in the low 1800s. Sustained price action under 1800 looks completely out of range. 

Dow' monthly'2

A fifth consecutive blue candle on the Dow 'rainbow' monthly chart. The Dow looks to have a mid term top of 18351, and looks in the early stage of a decline to the 16500/16000 zone by early October.

WTIC, monthly2

Having got stuck around the $60 threshold for a few months, Oil has resumed collapse mode, settling -20.8% in the $46s. The March low of the $42s looks set to be broken... with a viable target to around $35 in Q4.


Copper continues the broad decline from spring 2011... now in the low $2s. I do not expect sustained action <$2.00 into 2016.

USD, monthly

A net monthly gain of 1.9% @ DXY 97.44. Regardless of any continued chop across the next few months, the USD looks set to re-take the giant 100 threshold.. .and then proceed onward to the 120s. That will have a great many implications.

Goodnight from London
*the weekend update will be on the world monthly indexes