Tuesday, 4 August 2015

Bonds pushing higher into the autumn

Whilst equities settled broadly lower for the second consecutive trading day, US bond prices were continuing to battle upward. The ETF of TLT settled +1.1% @ $123.58, and is now higher for the sixth consecutive week. Another 7-9 weeks of upside looks viable into early October.

TLT, weekly

TLT, monthly


*I realise many have little care/concern about the bond market... but it does have indirect implications for equities.

The weekly cycle is set for a sixth net weekly gain... above declining trend/resistance of 123. First target is the 130/35 zone. A possible double top is setting up for late Sept/early Oct.

As for the monthly chart, if bonds do max out  this autumn, with TLT in the 130s (or 140s).. first TLT downside target for 2016 will the be the $100 threshold.

*I hold to the ECM (economic confidence model) as developed by Armstrong. Mr A' is broadly seeking a multi-year capital shift from the public to private sector, with a turn day of Sept 30/Oct'1st 2015. aka.. 2015.75.

The theory is entirely his, and I believe it is something that merits at least some consideration.

Looking ahead

Tuesday will see Factory orders data (10am).

As for the equity market...I shall merely conclude with this...

Those hoping 'the US equity market will be calm and fine into the autumn'... will likely be disappointed.
Goodnight from London