Friday, 7 August 2015

1pm update - holding under the 200dma

US equities remain broadly weak, with the sp'500 sustainably trading under the key 200dma. A daily/weekly close <2073 would be a bonus to the equity bears... along with VIX >14.50. The weekly/monthly cycles continue to give clarity to the mid term outlook across September/early Oct'.

Dow, daily



*the dow is set for the 7th consecutive net daily decline... something we've not seen since the collapse wave of July/Aug 2011.

Bonus fact... the Dow has declined 12 of the last 14 trading days.

Re: VIX.  Volatility remains subdued. The bigger weekly cycle is offering much higher levels in the weeks ahead, with sustained action in the 20s. For me, the only issue is whether we'll see 'days' in the 30s.

*I remain long VIX, and as things are, I'm content to hold long across the weekend, I'm seeking a better exit in the 16/17s.

back at 2pm