Thursday, 25 September 2014

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open moderately lower, but look set for a latter day rally, a daily close in the sp'2000/2005 zone looks probable, with VIX in the 12s. Meanwhile, the USD is +0.4%, which is pressuring the metals, Gold -$6, with Silver -1.6%


GLD, daily


*interesting opening action...spooking a few bulls, but really, 1978 looks a comfortable concrete floor

VIX fractionally breaks the recent 14.94 spike high..

Call this opening wave lower, a 2, B, or whatever you want, but yesterdays low of sp'1978 looks like concrete.

Right now, a simple for those still short to get out...and/or to go long...

Prime upside target remains sp'2010, more likely next Mon/Tue.

re: metals... suffice to say, the broader cycles are ALL bearish, probably another 6-12 months before the final washout is complete.

...which would mean the mining stocks will lose (typically) another 25/35%.

10.06am.. This market is really washing out a lot with this down wave... but 1978 should hold.

The only suggestion it will continue is the VIX, which has fractionally broken yesterdays high.

Smaller 5/15min cycles are offering a turn at sp'1981.... for the serious money out there... a simple 3/5pt stop... makes for an easy long-trade.

10.11am VIX is offering a turn... from 15.03. Remains odd it never did manage to even fill the gap in the mid 15s.

Regardless, looks like we have a turn from sp'1981.... bears are getting their exit signals.

10.15am.. sp'1980...  jeez, this is getting real marginal now.

A break of 1978 would justifiably open up all sorts of crazy outlooks...

10.21am.. Trans/R2K both take out yesterdays low..... headline indexes still holding on.

Notably, the Dow is the strongest index...

With VIX 15s.. this is a surprisingly weak opening hour...

As ever............ typical turn time... 11am........

sp'1977... busting the neckline.....
- VIX is now filling the price gap zone.... of the 15s....

VIX 'daily3

With 1978 failing...I think many out there are real surprised right now.... I'm one of them.

10.28am... Monthly 'rainbow' candle on the R2K turns RED for the first time since May 2012.

10.37am.. A LOT of technical carnage has been done with this mornings significant declines.

If we do still manage to rally from this later today... it'll make for even more confusion.

Clown finance TV suggesting its talk from Fed official Fisher about interest rates that is causing market upset.....hmm

10.47am... Its all support is not until the price cluster zone of 1950 or so... which might equate to VIX 18/19s.

Some seriously bearish scenarios are on the immediate agenda.... more on those later..

Clearly though...with the break of 1978....something new is going on.