Monday, 3 March 2014

11am update - typical turn time

US equities are holding moderate declines of around 0.8%, with a VIX +14% in the low 16s. However, we're now approaching the typical time when the downside pressure (what little there is) is usually exhausted. The question now well can the bulls fight back into the late afternoon?




For me, the VIX remains the underlying problem for the equity bears. Yes, it is significantly higher, but overall..this just isn't a market that is particularly upset.

I think the opening black-fail candle on the hourly VIX is the key aspect of today.

Holding to original outlook..continued broad upside into the next FOMC.

With sig' QE today..and Wednesday...bears still face the old problem.

Metals are building gains.. Gold +$27...back to the level from last October. More on that ...later.

11.14am.. marginal new lows on the indexes...

but VIX has still not broken above the gap high.

Bears just don't have the downside power kick.

Metals build gains... Gold +$ of the strongest gains in some weeks..maybe months?

11.21am.. Again... market trying to floor..just around 1840...and this is the typical turn time!


11.43am.. triple spike floor on the 15min cycle. Nothing conclusive yet..but it makes for a pretty good initial floor.

Bears probably getting the last opportunity to exit before the ramp.