Friday, 13 December 2013

Volatility gains across the week

With equity indexes holding the sp'1772 low, the VIX failed to break the Thursday high, but did hold a small gain into the weekend, settling +1.4% @ 15.76. VIX looks set to weaken into the 14/12 zone next week. Across the week, the VIX gained a notable 14.3%.





On a long term overview, the VIX remains remarkably low. However, with the holidays fast approaching, the market will likely be increasingly subdued, and the VIX should thus melt lower.

Baring a bizarre QE-taper decision next Wednesday by the Fed - which I believe HIGHLY unlikely, the VIX should remain under the big 20 threshold for another 5-7 weeks.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed with some chop, sp -0.2pts @ 1775. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled +0.4%. Broader market looks set for a move back into the sp'1800s next week. Year end target remains the 1830/50 zone.



*certainly, a bit of a choppy closing hour, but overall.. equity bulls should be pleased with what is a triple floor at sp'1772.

A pretty interesting week, certainly, bears had a good C wave lower to the low 1770s - right on target, and bulls kept the broader trends very much intact.

Have a good weekend

*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes

3pm update - Mr Market still teasing the bears

Another little wave lower to 1772..and no doubt, many bears are getting overly excited about next week. Yet...this is very likely just another tease, with a whipsaw higher next Monday. Metals holding gains, Gold +$9, with Silver +0.7%. VIX still looks set to close red.




Well, do we have a rare triple floor at 1772?

Considering everything, I'd say yes.  Bears had a good wave from 1812 to 1772, and 40pts is a very reasonable amount whilst QE continues.

Elsewhere, the momo stocks - esp, FB and TWTR are catching a lot of attention, both look set for a charge into the $60s into 2014.

updates..into the close

3.18pm... sp' wants to at least test 1779/80 before the close again.

Regardless.the 1800s look highly probable next week.

3.31pm.. and there is 1779....  Bears had so many chances to exit today. I'm gonna be really moody with anyone next week who complains about sp'1800s.

3.35pm.. VIX -1% @ 15.41...looking for a smack down in the closing minutes..into the 14s.

3.40pm.. chop chop.....all minor noise though.

Notable strength in TWTR, +5% in the $58s !

3.51pm..a mere 5pts above the low,....but bulls look to be fine..and all set for higher levels next week.

back at the close!

2pm update - secure floor, new up wave

The US market is battling hard into the weekend, with the main indexes now moderately higher. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, are indeed leading, both up around 0.6%. Metals are holding minor gains, Gold +$7. VIX looks set to close the week, in the upper 14s.




Equity bears sure had a lot of opportunities to exit into the weekend in the low 1770s. No doubt, those holding short across the weekend, will be whining when we're in the sp'1800s.

Best case bullish upside next week, looks to be around 1820/25, which is a level I realise a fair few people - from different financial orientations, are all looking for.

Two hours to go..lets see what the bull maniacs can manage.

RIght now..sp' is -1.5% on the week.

2.28pm... another minor wave lower..and we're again testing the 1772 floor.

Bears getting yet another  chance to exit in the low 1770s, ahead of the weekend!

1pm update - a clown song for Bernanke

US equities look set to rally into the late afternoon. We now have a very solid floor of sp'1772, and equity bulls should comfortably retake the 1790/1800s by late Monday. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$9. Oil is trying to recover, now just -0.6%.



Market still battling it out, but bears are losing control. Considering the price action..and structure, it'd be real odd if we broke <1772.

Much like Dec'5, we could trundle and confuse many into the close. The Monday open will offer much easier upside for the bulls.

*Bernanke is 60 honour of the worlds leading printing maniac...who managed to both save the western world..and condemn it at the same time...

stay tuned

1.21pm.. hourly MACD cycle about to go positive..bullish crosses a'coming! 

12pm update - awaiting a snap higher

The market is seeing something of a renewed battle. Bears just need to break <1772, whilst bulls only need >1777. Metals are slowly building gains, Gold +$11, whilst Oil remains weak, -0.9%. On balance, the broader market should manage to claw higher into the Friday close.


TWTR, daily


*the strength in TWTR remains pretty bizarre. A loss making social media worth 3 times what many said just a few months ago.

As for the main market...bears should be very mindful that the hourly MACD cycle looks floored. The longer the bulls can merely hold above 1772..the more secure the floor.

The situation is indeed very much like Thursday Dec'5...where we battled it out..only to snap higher on the Friday.

VIX update from Mr T.

time for tea !

12.24pm.. market clawing higher...with risk of afternoon snap higher. A close in the 1790s sure would make for an interesting weekly close.

FB powering higher..into the $53s.

12.40pm..ramp..early phase...the 1-2pm hour could be rough for the bears...urghh

11am update - double floor at 1772

A touch of weakness..and the market slips to confirm 1772 as a floor. Text. Book. :)  Metals are gaining, Gold +$10, whilst Oil is weak..-1%. Equity bears have had a bonus chance to exit in the low 1770s. Now its time for the bulls to kick this market back into the 1790/1800s by late Monday.




So..the bears had yet another opportunity to exit at the cycle low. That makes for a rather lucky 13th.

We have a clear double floor, and all index cycles should now start to push upward..all the way into next week.

*very notable strength in FB and TWTR.

11.16am.. market still teasing the bears.   Bulls just need a break >1777..

FB +1.5%.. TWTR set for the big $60 on Monday...even Drudge is highlighting this loss making company.

11.27am.. market wants to snap higher... 1776..and ...poised.

10am update - opening chop

Equities open with some minor chop, and considering the hourly/daily cycles, we should hold above the sp'1772 low. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$7, but as ever...the primary trend is down. With heavy QE next week, the equity bears window of opportunity is coming to a close.



I've no doubt some out there will be calling for major doom next week.

Don't you think Mr Market would like to close higher at the next FOMC?

Notable strength: F, TWTR, and UAL

TWTR, daily


Key issue:  bulls should merely seek a break above the hourly 10MA..1782. Once that is achieved..the 1790s become a given..whether late today..or next week.

*arguably...bears are getting yet another bonus opportunity to exit in the 1770s, but I've no doubt..many will hold out..and likely get nailed to the wall.

10.27am... sp'1772..on the edge.

For those still seeking the 1760/ is your last chance to break lower...

and I don't think you can do it!

VIX is is not concerned.'re getting another chance to the cycle low.

10.31am...double floor on the sp'500 ?

sp'5min cycle

Looks like a floor to see what the bull maniacs can manage today..they need >1782

10.41am..Bulls look secure at 1772....we're headed up...

TWTR +3.5%.. FB +1%...momo stocks still sucking in the hot money today.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 1780. Metals are similarly trying to bounce, Gold +$5. Equity bulls should have a reasonable chance at closing the week on a slightly up note, but still on a net weekly decline.



So..overnight declines..swing to pre-market doubt some will be dismayed at that.

Hourly cycles should offer the 1790s to the bulls by next Monday, the only issue is whether we put in another lower high..or battle upward..past the FOMC. As it is, I think the market will battle higher..regardless of what the FOMC do next Wednesday.

Notable strength: STX +1.8%

Video update from Oscar


Unlucky Friday 13th for the bears?

If sp'1772 was a short term low, then the bears are in real trouble this Friday..and into early next week.The broader trend remains to the upside, with an end year target of sp'1830/50. Baring a bizarre and ill timed FOMC QE-taper next Wednesday, the market should rally from here.



Did we just see an ABC wave lower? It is always difficult to be certain, until we're a few more days out.

Regardless, it was pleasing to see my target zone of sp'1774/72 hit, and perhaps that was indeed the low for this little sub'4 wave.

The broader trend of course...remains to the upside

BDI - on the rise

As expected, the BDI continues to rise, and is one global economic indicator for the bulls to look forward to in the months ahead.

BDI, monthly

Targets zone remains 3000/3500 by the spring, with 6000s in late 2015. If that is the case, it bodes extremely bullish for the shipper stocks, including the still lowly DRYS.

Looking ahead

There is only producer prices to conclude the week.

*Next sig' QE is next Monday.

An interesting day..and I'll leave it at that.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes saw a latter day recovery, with the sp -6pts @ 1775. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled flat and +0.2% respectively. Near term remains weak, but the 1772 low should hold, and there is relatively easy upside back into the low 1800s.




So..the headline indexes of the Nasdaq, Sp'500, and Dow, all closed red for the third consecutive day. It is notable that the two leaders though - Trans/R2K, look somewhat stronger, and suggestive of a Friday positive close for the wider market.

An ABC (forming sub'4) was the style of decline expected..and we arguably now have a floor at sp'1772. So long as that is not taken out..I'll hold to an outlook for broad upside into end year.

The break in the dow <15800 is an issue...however, other indexes..along with the VIX are highly suggestive that the broader up trend will resume..and take us into early 2014.

As I noted last night, Bulls have downside buffer to the 15200s. Anyone touting major doom before that level is taken out..needs to spend the coming weekend staring at one of the monthly charts I regularly post.

a little more later...