Monday 23 December 2013

12pm update - volatility melting into Christmas

With just two days until Santa delivers, the VIX is naturally melting lower..and looks set for the 12s. A year end close in the 11s..even 10s is possible if Mr Market gets over excited at 'better than expected' holiday sales.


VIX'daily3

Summary

As expected, we're just seeing the VIX slip lower. Unlike last year when the market was getting real twitchy about the budget, there is nothing in the immediate term.

What will be interesting is how we close the year. Considering the setup, VIX 11s by Dec'31 wouldn't surprise me. Hell, even the 10s..if we can claw into the sp'1840/50s.
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Not many are talking about it lately, but NFLX is comfortably cruising higher..after that little whipsaw at the most recent earnings.


The $400s look a given...the only issue is whether $500s are viable by late spring..before the next smack down for the broader market.