Thursday, 30 May 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes all closed moderately lower, and that was somewhat above their 11am lows. The sp' close of 1648 was a fall of 0.7%, and its notable that the bears should now be somewhat desperate to break the double floor low of 1635. Near term trend remains weak.



So...a bit of a tricky day in market land. We saw opening moderate declines that built until 11am, to be followed by almost 5 hours of the market battling back higher.

There was a touch of weakness in the closing 15 minutes, and its very possible that was the start of the next major wave lower - across Thursday, and even into early Friday.

Best guess is that sp' will floor in the 1630/25 area this Friday.

I do realise though, there are plenty out there who are seeking somewhat lower levels, with a gap-fill of 1597. In my view the bears have a window until late Friday morning. After that, there is a very large QE of 5-6bn, along with a lot of end-month trading issues to settle.

a little more later...