Nasdaq Comp
SPdaily5
Trans
Summary
A pretty dull Monday, and were it not for AAPL breaking below the $500 level, many would have stayed fast asleep today.
The transports still looks incredibly strong, and is literally scraping along the upper channel line. It shows no sign of weakening. A retracement, if we get one, would be somewhere down to the mid 5400s, and that would still do no damage to the primary trend.
At this rate, transports in the 6000s looks very viable by March/April.
The big gap
The SP' daily chart shows the 1425 gap level which I still think is somewhat important, although as we get to the end of this week, its not going to be possible to hit 1425, without breaking key rising channel support.
So, a retracement to 1425 - if its going to happen, would be much easier to occur this week, than next. As things are, I'm guessing we only decline to the low 1440s
In terms of the underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, we've now ticked lower for 4 of the last 5 days. Yet, we remain in positive cycle, and indeed the general price trend is still UP.
What is clear, the sp'1474 high from last September is a level that the market is responding to with caution. Even the algo-bots seem to be on the sidelines, waiting for the 1475s before they start buying again.
A little more later