Tuesday, 18 December 2012

On the edge...again

With the indexes closing significantly higher, we are right back near the FOMC highs of last Wednesday  A daily close this week >sp'1438 would qualify as a very bullish signal. With Santa a mere week away, is the market about to rip the heads off the few remaining bears?


sp'monthly3, rainbow



sp'weekly


Summary

Hmm, today was not good at all. The sp'1430 close was yet another little bullish aspect that bothers me.

In theory we could merely be making yet another back test of the original Oct'2011 support. Technically - as at end December the back test level will be as high as sp'1460 - a mere 1% from the September highs. However, the back test argument is getting a little bit old I admit.

As noted earlier, a daily close >1438, and the daily'4 outlook, gets put on hold, but I can understand if some would suggest it should just get trashed.


sp'daily4 - ready to be trashed



The stuff of bear nightmares

After today, the scary thought for the bears has to be that a mere overnight futures move of more than 0.5%, and we will be trading above the FOMC levels  There is open air from sp'1438 all the way to the Sept FOMC 1474 high.

Even worse, there are still some noted market forecasters suggesting the market will yet close the year in the sp'1500s. Such outlooks probably assume a hyper ramp, due to a 'fiscal cliff agreement' of some kind.

We've seen some crazy bullish ramp action over the past few years, I am now seriously concerned we're going to see another bout of mass market delusion, cheer leaded by the clown network finance TV maniacs.

Goodnight from London

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