Thursday 31 May 2012

1pm update - need a fail at the hourly 10MA

We've seen a bounce - to be expected, and it probably scared a few of the weak bear hands out of their short positions.

As noted earlier, what especially matters today is we see the indexes put in a fail at the hourly 10MA...we're there right now...so the next hour or two will be real important.


Sp'60min




Sp, daily, bearish outlook, count'2


Summary

I'm starting to like the daily count - noted above. If this is still a wave'5 (of main'1), then this down move will end tomorrow or early Monday. A quick VIX spike to 27/29 would help to confirm that.

Bears would much prefer - myself included, to close under 1300, and that makes a move to 1285/80 tomorrow morning relatively easy.

Keep eyes on the VIX, bears should still look for a close in the 25s.