Monday, 31 August 2020

Two thirds

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp -8pts (0.2%) at 3499. Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. Dow -0.8%. The Transports settled -1.2%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

The last day of August was comprised of just minor chop. The Dow was a laggard, whilst the Nasdaq continues to lead. The SPX and Nasdaq comp' both broke new historic highs. VIX notably picked up.


Two thirds

With August having settled... two thirds of 2020 has elapsed. For most... that could be seen as a positive. After all, 2021 will be better, right? Next year couldn't possibly be worse... right? The truth is that 2021 could make 2020 seem like one giant Disneyland party.



The same basement dwelling unwashed sheep chasing AAPL and TSLA on the stock splits, are perhaps the same collective who will be first in line for their (no longitudinal studies) vaccines. Good luck with that.

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Goodnight from London
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Saturday, 29 August 2020

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +3.5% (Trans), +3.4% (Nasdaq comp'), +3.3% (SPX), +2.8% (NYSE comp'), to +2.6% (Dow).


Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500


The ninth weekly gain of eleven, breaking a new historic high of 3509, and settling +110pts (3.3%) to 3508. Absolutely zero sign of a short/mid term top. Momentum has now decisively surpassed the February high. First major supports are within the upper/mid 3200s.


Nasdaq comp'


A fifth consecutive net weekly gain, breaking a new historic high of 11730, settling +383pts (3.4%) to 11695. I would note this week's settlement, which is above the upper weekly bollinger, for the first time since early January.


Dow


The mighty Dow climbed for the third week of four, settling +723pts (2.6%) to 28653. The index lagged the broader market, primarily due to natural selling of components PFE, RTX, and XOM, set to get the kick - as of Monday August 31st, to be replaced by AMGN, CRM, and HON.


NYSE comp'


The master index climbed for the ninth week of eleven, settling +361pts (2.8%) to 13170.


Trans


Higher for the seventh week of nine, settling +381pts (3.5%) to 11322. I would note the Jan'2020 high of 11359, and the Aug'2018 historic high of 11623.



Summary

All five US equity indexes settled net higher for the week.

The SPX and Nasdaq comp' broke new historic highs.

More broadly, all fives indexes are currently trading above their respective monthly 10MA, as the m/t trend is bullish.



Looking ahead

A relatively light week is ahead.

Earnings:

M - CTLT, ZM
T - HOME, SCVL
W - M, CRWD, CLDR, ZUO, FIVE
T - CPB, MOMO, SIG, DOCU, AVGO, SWBI,
F -
-

Econ-data:

M -
T - PMI/ISM manu', construction, vehicle sales
W - ADP jobs, factory orders, EIA Pet' report, Fed Beige book (2pm)
T - Weekly jobs, Productivity/costs
F - Monthly jobs
-
*as Monday is end month, expect considerably higher volume.

**As Friday is ahead of the Labor day break, expect subdued trading conditions, once the jobs data is out of the way. 
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Saturday, 15 August 2020

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equities, with the SPX settling +21pts (0.6%) to 3372.

sp'500


The seventh net weekly gain of nine, breaking a new cycle high of 3387, and settling +21pts (0.6%) to 3372. There is zero sign of a short/mid term ceiling/turn.



Looking ahead

A relatively light week is ahead.

Earnings:

M - JD
T - WMT, HD, SE, KSS,CREE
W - LOW, TGT TJX, ADI, NVDA, LB
T - BABA, BJ, EL, ROST, KEYS
F - DE, FL BZUN
-

Econ-data:

M - Empire state manu'
T - Housing starts
W - EIA Pet' report, FOMC mins (2pm)
T - Weekly jobs, Phil' fed, leading indi'
F - PMI manu/serv' flash, existing home sales. *OPEX*
-

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Have a good weekend
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*the next post.... nothing scheduled.