Saturday, 25 July 2020

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish week for most US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -1.7% (Transports), -1.3% (Nasdaq comp'), -0.8% (Dow), -0.3% (SPX), to +0.5% (NYSE comp').


Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500



Nasdaq comp'



Dow



NYSE comp'



Trans





Summary

Four US equity indexes settled net lower for the week, with one net higher.

The Transports lead the way lower, with the NYSE comp' resilient.

The Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high.

More broadly, all five US equity indexes are currently trading above their respective monthly 10MA.



Looking ahead

A very busy week is ahead, with the first look at Q2 GDP, and another truck load of earnings. We can expect further Corona related headlines, especially in terms of the vaccine candidates. Its also likely we'll see some further 'developments' in US/China relations.

Earnings:

M - HAS, NXPI,

T - PFE, MCD, MMM, RTX, CNC, MO, JBLU, HOG, AMD, V, EBAY, SBUX, FEYE, AKAM, AMGN, CAR

W - SHOP, BA, GE, SPOT, ANTM, GM, APRN, PYPL, QCOM, TDOC, NOW, URI

T - UPS, MA, AZN, PG, KHC, BUD, CLF, LLY, NEM, CMCSA, AMZN, FB, AAPL, F, GOOGL, GILD, MGM, EA, XLNX

F - XOM, ABBV, PINS, CAT, MRK, CVX, UAA
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Econ-data:

M - Durable Goods Orders
T - Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer con', Richmond Fed manu'
W - Intl' trade, pending home sales, EIA Pet'

FOMC announcement (2pm), with Powell (2.30pm). No change in rates or the ongoing QE program can be expected. Its likely that Powell will again state the Fed's support for further fiscal stimulus, and that the fed will do 'whatever is necessary' to bolster the US economy (or rather... the equity market).

T - Weekly jobs, Q2 GDP (print'1),
F - Pers' income/outlays, Chicago PMI, consumer sent'

*As Friday will be end month, expect considerably higher volume.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

Friday, 24 July 2020

Falling into the weekend

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -20pts (0.6%) at 3215. Nasdaq comp' -0.9%. Dow -0.7%. The Transports settled -0.3%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened broadly weak, with the SPX leaning to 3200, and settling at 3215. Thursday's bearish engulfing candle played out.

Volatility was pretty muted, the VIX settling -0.9% to 25.84. Thursdays bullish engulfing candle played out... if briefly.
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Moody skies to end a mixed week

Next full moon is Aug'3rd
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 23 July 2020

There will be no V

US equity indexes mostly closed significantly lower, sp -40pts (1.2%) at 3235. Nasdaq comp' -2.3%. Dow -1.3%. The Transports settled -0.3%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, if with a fractional new multi-month high of sp'3279.99.

Meanwhile...

The Santelli of CNBC

The latest weekly jobs data wasn't pretty, 1.416M vs 1.307 (revised) prior week. The run of improvement has concluded, as the economic recovery has stalled for obvious reasons. The notion of a V-shaped recovery was always nonsense. Now its a case of how rough the rest of the summer will be, and whether society itself devolves into even deeper levels of mass hysteria this autumn.

The afternoon saw a very significant swing lower - with tech leading the way, the SPX printing 3222. and settling at 3235.

Volatility swung from a low of 23.60 to settle +7.2% to 26.08. The daily SPX candle is of the bearish engulfing type, with the daily VIX candle of the bullish engulfing type. Those are not to be dismissed lightly.
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Appropriately moody skies for a Thursday
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
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For details and the latest offers, see: Permabeardoomster.com