Permabear Doomster

Thursday, 2 July 2020

Into the long weekend

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, sp +14pts (0.4%) at 3130. Nasdaq comp' +0.5%. Dow +0.4%. The Transports settled +0.9%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities were broadly higher in early pre-market, and caught an extra wave upward on the monthly jobs data from the BLS.

Equities duly opened very significantly higher, with the SPX pushing to 3165. There was a mid morning cooling wave to 3130, but then renewed upside into the early afternoon. The late afternoon saw some distinct cooling, which made for a daily black candle, and that bodes bearish for Mon/Tuesday.

Volatility was in melt mode, the VIX settling -3.3% to 27.68.
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Sunshine and showers into the long weekend

Full moon... July 5th

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 1 July 2020

The second half

US equity indexes closed somewhat mixed, sp +15pts (0.5%) at 3115. Nasdaq comp' +0.9%. Dow -0.3%. The Transports settled -0.2%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities began the second half of the year on a positive note, but soon entered micro chop mode, which continued into the late afternoon. The closing hour printed sp'3128, and settling moderately higher at 3115.

Volatility melted lower, the VIX settling -5.9% to 28.62. Once Thursday's econ-data is out of the way, the market will be inclined for minor chop into the long weekend.
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It was just another day... up above.

Tuesday, 30 June 2020

June settles

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +47pts (1.5%) at 3100. Nasdaq comp' +1.9%. Dow +0.8%. The Transports settled +1.3%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Equities opened a little choppy, leaning weak to 3047, but then clawing back upward into early afternoon.

These remain bizarre times, the following two screenies are added, if only for historical posterity...

"No one cared who I was until I put on the mask"

"No one cared until I started buying Newmont $NEM corp' bonds"

The afternoon saw considerable chop, but with the closing hour seeing an upward spike to 3111, and settling at 3100. Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -4.2% to 30.43.

With the SPX settling June above multiple aspects of support, not least the 50dma, psy'3K, the monthly 10MA, and the 200dma, it made for a second consecutive bullish monthly settlement. The market still looks vulnerable to the mid/low 2800s, but I would expect July itself to also settle >3K, not least if stim' bill 4 is passed.
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Moody skies... as June/Q2/H1 settles