Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a powerfully bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +10.1% (Transports), +7.1% (NYSE comp'), +6.8% (Dow), +4.9% (SPX), to +3.4% (Nasdaq comp').


Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts).

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

NYSE comp'

Trans

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Summary

All five US equity indexes settled net higher for the week.

The Transports is leading the way higher, with the Nasdaq trailing.

The Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high.

All five indexes have re-taken their respective monthly 10MA.
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Looking ahead

A pretty light week is ahead, with just a handful of notable earnings, and a few pieces of econ-data. Whilst there will be an FOMC, there will clearly be no change in policy.

Earnings:

M - SFIX
T - TIF, CHWY, GME, FIVE, AMC
W - GES, RRGB
T - ADBE, LULU, PVH
F -
-

Econ-data:

M -
T - JOLTS, wholesale inventories
W - CPI, EIA Pet', US T-budget

FOMC announcement 2pm, with a press conf' at 2.30pm.

T - Weekly jobs, PPI, Fed bal' sheet (4.30pm)
F - Import/export prices, consumer sent'
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The Longest Day (1962)

Final note

May saw the SPX and Nasdaq comp' settle back above their respective monthly 10MA. Under my criteria, that made for a bullish monthly settlement, and changed the m/t trend back to bullish. This past week has seen other indexes follow.

A multi-week retrace is due, and whilst we might break back under sp'3K at some point, I do not expect any bearish monthly settlement (under the 10MA). Any cooling wave/retrace is thus to be seen as such. I hope that is (as Wonka might say)... clear as crystal!

Strawberry full moon

I can understand if some saw Friday's equity gains as a case of moon-madness, but the employment data was a distinct improvement. A massive economic recovery is underway, with the Fed activity preventing any mid/upper tier corporate bankruptcies. By year end, perhaps half of the -40% collapse in GDP will have been recovered. That will still make for a broken society and economy into 2021.

With further QE and zero rates, I will merely re-iterate, I see long gold and the related miners, as the most straight forward trade into 2021. Be careful out there... in the twilight zone.


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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

A place to get stuck

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp -10pts (-0.3%) at 3112. Nasdaq comp' -0.7%. Dow +0.05%. The Transports settled +1.4%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in chop mode, leaning increasingly weak into late afternoon. From a new intraday low of sp'3090, there was a mini ramp into the close.

Meanwhile... Laggard of the ECB announced €600bn more in printing...

I would note the various 10yr bond yields. It remains a wonder why the superior economies of Germany and France have worse yields than Spain or Italy. In any case... more printing from the ECB will do nothing other than mask/paper over the underlying/systemic problems.

Volatility was subdued, the VIX settling +0.6% at 25.81. The sp'3130/36 zone would be a natural place to get stuck, but for now, there is zero clarity of a s/t ceiling/turn.

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Goodnight from London
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Just another day

US equity indexes mostly closed very significantly higher, sp +42pts (1.4%) at 3122. Nasdaq comp' +0.8%. Dow +2.0%. The Transports settled +3.3%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was just another day for the equity bulls, with the SPX opening moderately higher, and clawing upward across the day, to break a new cycle high.

Meanwhile...

The latest ADP jobs data was not surprisingly horrific, but the market doesn't care, on the notion the economic recovery will be V-shaped. That outlook is overly optimistic, and another stimulus bill can be expected... with Print Central having already stated they would be supportive of.

Volatility naturally melted lower, the VIX settling -4.4% to 25.66.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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