One month ago

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +11pts (0.5%) at 2409. Nasdaq comp' +2.3%. Dow +0.9%. The Transports settled +1.5%. Near term outlook offers considerable chop for quad-opex.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, but battled back upward from an early low of sp'2319, and into the mid 2400s.

Meanwhile...

CNBC's Pisani, not on the floor, of the (soon to be closed) NYSE.

As the financial networks are taking unusual measures to keep its keeps its hosts separate, we're getting a glimpse into the homes of the cheerleaders.

The afternoon saw some significant chop, but equities managed to hold onto broad gains. Volatility printed 84.26, but cooled back, the VIX settling -5.8% to 72.00. The outlook for Friday offers considerable equity chop, for what will be quadruple option expiration (QUAD-OPEX).


One month ago

Feb'19th post...
https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.com/2020/02/just-another-new-historic-high.html

Things were rather different Feb'19th. The mainstream didn't care about the Corona virus, as it was seen as just a problem for the Chinese and a few South Koreans. The equity market duly broke a new historic high of sp'3393.

Yet, we had a very long string of downside gaps to the 2900/2800s, with price action/structure similar to early 2019. All those gaps looked to be filled... sooner or later.

A mere one month later, we have global capital markets in turmoil, as the world economy has largely ground to a halt. US Q2 GDP estimates vary from a literal 'end of the world' -14%, to just a 'deeply recessionary' -3.2%. 

For now, many are calling for a V shaped recovery, helped by further rate cuts, and trillions of QE from central banks across the world.



It does appear Q2 GDP (first print will appear late July), will probably be worse than even the depths of the 2008 financial collapse.

Something few of the mainstream cheerleaders want to think about...

Say we have an (eventual) lockdown for 2-3 weeks, with an attempt to return to 'relative normalcy' in May/June. Yet then a number of secondary outbreaks occur. What then? Another lockdown? No. Then it would become a case of letting the virus just burn its way through the population until almost everyone has been infected and (largely) recovered.

It should be clear, Corona is just getting started within Europe and the USA. We have further 'interesting' times ahead.

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Midweek upset

US equity indexes closed severely lower, sp -131pts (5.2%) at 2398. Nasdaq comp' -4.7%. Dow -6.3%. The Transports settled -6.6%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened severely lower, and despite a few bounce attempts, the market completely unravelled into the afternoon, effectively in crash mode, not least within the transportation stocks, many of which were -20 to -40%.

RE: a shutdown. I expect a US shutdown of 2-3 weeks, a full month would be better. The UK could be expected to enact a lockdown before the US.

The CNBC interview...



The afternoon saw the 7% circuit breakers kick in, with price spiraling to outright crash-scale declines, with a 2pm hour low of 2280, swinging to 2409, and settling -131pts (5.2%) at 2389.

Volatility printed a new multi-decade high of 85.47, the VIX settling +0.7% at 76.45. Technically, next major support is not until the summer 2015 high of the 2134s.

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Goodnight from London
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Tuesday chop

US equity indexes closed powerfully higher, sp +143pts (6.0%) at 2529. Nasdaq comp' +6.2%. Dow +5.2%. The Transports settled +6.3%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened very significantly higher, but the gains were shaky from the start, with the SPX breaking a marginal lower low of 2367... just 21pts above the Dec'2018 low.

With equities seeing a secondary wave upward, Trump, Mnuchin et al, appeared in late morning...

It would appear American citizens can expect some 'free money' starting within the next week or two. I'm guessing it be around $1000. Mnuchin spoke as though payments would be monthly, and continue for 6-8 months.

The afternoon saw some considerable chop, leaning on the upward side. Volatility broke a new cycle high of 84.83, but then cooled, the VIX settling -8.2% at 75.91.

Your views...

For the record, yours truly would choose stocks, specifically Barrick Gold (GOLD).
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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For details and the latest offers, see: Permabeardoomster.com