Phase one signed

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +6pts (0.2%) at 3289. Nasdaq comp' +0.1%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled +0.3%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little choppy, but leaned upward to break new historic highs to sp'3298. The 12pm hour saw US President Trump, and (tier'4) Vice-Premier Liu He of China finally got around to signing a phase one trade deal...

Whilst the US was represented by Trump, there was no sign of Xi, whom I'm sure had 'better things to do'.  The afternoon saw a minor burst upward on the excuse of the Fed's latest beige book, but then price leaned weak to 3280, only to see a micro ramp to settle a little higher at 3289.

Volatility remained subdued, with the VIX settling +0.2% at 12.42. The three day break.... can't come soon enough.
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Post stormy Tuesday

Ray of hope

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This market is high

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp -5pts (0.2%) at 3283. Nasdaq comp' -0.2%. Dow +0.1%. The Transports settled +0.9%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, but leaned upward, with the SPX breaking a new historic high of 3294 in early afternoon.

There was a piece of spooky tariff-related news though, which saw the algo-bots panic. From a spike floor of 3277, the SPX settled just a little lower at 3283. Volatility saw an afternoon spike high of 13.82, but settling +0.6% at 12.39.


This market is high

It is unquestionably the case that the US equity market is grossly short/mid term over-stretched. Price action and structure is similar to late 2017/early 2018. We have no less than 12 downside gaps to the mid/low 2900s. It is almost inconceivable those aren't filled sooner, rather than later.

Even Wapner of CNBC recognises this market is getting kinda crazy...

In regards to Ark Invest' touting Tesla (TSLA) to $6000: "Is it just me, or is it the theater of the absurd?" - Wapner.

I will just add that whilst the US/China are set to sign phase'1 of a trade deal on Wednesday, I am guessing there will be a 'sell the signing' equity reaction.
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The closing theme to 'Happy Death Day' (2017).
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But the story is this

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +22pts (0.7%) at 3288. Nasdaq comp' +1.0%. The Transports settled +0.8%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The equity week began on a positive note, with the SPX battling upward, with a micro ramp into the close, to break a new historic high (if fractional) of 3288.

Meanwhile...

CNBC recognising that even the 'money-losing companies' are also continuing to broadly rise. Spotify (SPOT) was downgraded by Evercore today, on the notion that the sector will remain unprofitable. Did they really just realise there is no money to be made in music streaming?

Regardless, it is the case that (most) of the garbage also climbs within a bull market... a natural mirror to when the best companies are dragged lower within a bear market.
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Volatility naturally remained subdued, with the VIX settling -1.9% at 12.32. Tuesday will threaten a turnaround, even if the first set of financial earnings (JPM, C, and WFC) come in broadly as expected.
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Yours... hyper bullish the Witcher and his Bard. Eight episodes of 100% magic.
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Goodnight from London
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