Awaiting more spooky news

US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -4.9pts (0.2%) at 3103. Nasdaq comp' -0.2%. Dow -0.2%. The Transports settled -0.1%. Near term outlook offers another wave lower to the sp'3050/46 zone.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and leaned to 3094. Price action was choppy into the afternoon.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling + % at 13.   .

Yesterday saw a break of s/t rising trend, with s/t equity price structure of a bear flag. If the Wednesday low of 3091 can be taken out - whether tomorrow, or early next week, it will offer a fast run to next downside gap of the 3050/36 zone, which might equate to VIX 17/18s. 

More 'spooky news' - namely... US/China trade related, appears due within the immediate term. If the Chinese make it clear 'no phase'1 trade deal' before year end, the market will broadly slide into end month/early December.

Sidenote: It should be clear, the US President has been increasingly intolerant of any degree of equity downside in recent months. If we do cool to the mid/low sp'2900s, it will be fascinating to see how Trump reacts on Twitter. 

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Downside break

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -11pts (0.4%) at 3108. Nasdaq comp' -0.5%. Dow -0.4%. The Transports settled -1.4%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, but quickly slipped into minor chop mode. Things turned interesting in the 12pm hour...

... with the mainstream realisation that phase one won't likely be signed before year end, the market broke lower. S/t rising trend was taken out, along with a few other aspects of support.

The afternoon saw a low of sp'3091 with VIX 14.17, before a moderate recovery into the close. Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling --0.6% at 12.78.

Regardless of overnight/early Thursday, today did see a key downside break, and it offers a broader washout into early December. We have SIX downside gaps, with the sixth of 2911/2893. Whilst that doesn't have to be tagged... the historical percentages favour it. 
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Departing the capital of geo-political chaos

Another cold day in the London metropolis

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Is Trump a candidate here too?

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -1.9pts (0.1%) at 3120. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. Dow -0.4%. The Transports settled -0.3%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The day began once again with a pre-market message from the US President...

Indeed, Nasdaq remains powerfully higher this year, and is the leader of the US indexes.

Equities opened positive, with new historic highs in the SPX, Dow, and Nasdaq comp'. However, the gains were shaky right from the start, with most indexes turning fractionally negative by 10am.

The afternoon saw further minor chop, leaning fractionally weak into the close. Volatility picked up a little, with the VIX settling +3.2% at 12.86.


Is Trump a candidate here too?

On first glance, you might actually wonder if the next UK election is between Farage, Johnson, and Trump. Part of this morning's political mail from...

... the Liberal Democrats, who are the UK's third biggest party. Whilst they have zero chance of winning, they will be more than willing to form a coalition with Corbyn/Labour party. It is very much the case that Trump is very much a part of UK political chatter.

The UK General election is due Thurs' Dec'12th. Results will be pouring in (appropriately) in the early hours of Friday the 13th. A clear result should be known by around 7am GMT (2am EST).

Ohh, and for the record, I'm leaning to a Corbyn/Labour 'shock victory'. Ironically, the market should be pleased with that, as any BREXIT bill would likely have a 'popular vote' tagged to it, and the UK populace would vote against ANY such bill, and thus remain in the EU.

... and if the UK remains in the EU... stronger GBP and Euro, weaker USD... and a weaker USD would pressure almost everything upward. 
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Goodnight from London
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