Monday, 28 October 2019

Starting positive

US equity indexes mostly closed moderately higher, sp +16pts (0.6%) at 3039. Nasdaq comp' +1.0%. Dow +0.5%. The Transports settled -0.03%. Near term outlook offers broad chop ahead of the Fed.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities began the last four days of October on a positive note, with the SPX breaking a new historic high at the open.

At 9.41am EDT...


Whilst the US President didn't mention the fed today, we can expect some swipes later this week, not least if the main market sees a classic 'sell the news' outcome.

Volatility remained subdued, with the VIX settling +3.6% at 13.11. S/t outlook offers a washout into early November, with FIVE downside gaps to sp'2911/2893.


Meanwhile...

The EU leadership made it official, with another delay to Jan'31st 2020. In the evening, PM Johnson pushed a vote to hold a general election.


... whilst the vote was 290/70 in favour, it was below the necessary majority (326 or higher). I would expect another vote (or more!) in the days ahead, with an election Dec'12th, with the results notably due Friday 13th. Good luck with that Johnson!
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Departing the capital of geo-political chaos

Another chilly autumnal day
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Goodnight from London
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Saturday, 26 October 2019

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +3.3% (Trans), +1.9% (Nasdaq comp'), +1.2% (SPX), +1.1% (NYSE comp'), to +0.7% (Dow).


Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500


A third consecutive net weekly gain, +36pts (1.2%) to 3022. The Friday high of 3027.39 was just 0.59pts shy of the July historic high. Weekly price momentum ticked upward, and is set to turn positive next week.


Nasdaq comp'


Tech climbed for a fourth week, settling +153pts (1.9%) to 8243. Price momentum is set to turn net positive next week.


Dow


The mighty Dow was the laggard this week, but still managed a net weekly gain of 186pts (0.7%) to 26956. Price momentum is set to turn positive next week.


NYSE comp'


The master index climbed for a third week, settling +138pts (1.1%) to 13145. Price momentum turned net positive this week. Note the key high from July of 13255.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, lead the way higher this week, powering upward by 347pts (3.3%) to 10855. Weekly price momentum is at levels not seen since May. Next resistance is the July high of 10876.


*special note: We're missing one index this week, as Stockcharts has not been providing data for the Russell 2000 since Oct'21st.
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Summary

All five indexes settled net higher for the week.

The Transports lead the way higher, with the Dow lagging.

More broadly, all five indexes are trading about their respective monthly key 10MA, as the m/t bullish trend is set to remain intact into early November.



Looking ahead

Another very busy week is ahead, with a truck load of earnings, econ-data, and a third rate cut from Print Central.

Earnings:



M - T, SPOT, WBA, ON, BYND, GOOGL, AKAM, NXP, RIG, XPO
T - SHOP, MA, MRK, PFE, GRUB, GM, COP, AMD, AMGN, FEYE, EA
W - GE, SNE, RCL, ADP, CME, AAPL, FB, SBUX, TWLO, LYFT, ZNGA, OLED, ETSY, WDC
T - MO, BMY, KHC, CELG, MPC, ABMD, W, PINS, X, AYX, EGO
F - BABA, ABBV, XOM, CVX, AIG, NWL, CL
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Econ-data:

M - Intl' trade
T - Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con', pending home sales
W - ADP jobs, Q3 GDP (first print), EIA Pet'

FOMC announcement (2pm): Rate cut'3 of -25bps to 1.50/1.75% can be expected. Powell will host a press conf' at 2.30pm. With the Fed balance sheet soaring back upward, I imagine he will face a great many questions from the media hacks, countering his notion that "This is not QE".

T - Weekly jobs, pers' income/outlays, Chicago PMI, EIA NG
F - Monthly jobs, PMI/ISS manu', construction

*Thursday will be Halloween and end month, price action can be expected to be more dynamic on higher volume.
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Final note

Another month is soon to wrap, leaving just one sixth left of the year. Indeed, just consider that the 2020s aren't far away now.

Here in the land of yours truly, Halloween won't see the UK exit the EU. Indeed, its still possible the UK won't ever exit. A general election is set to be announced. My guess remains that an eventual BREXIT bill will be passed, but that a 'confirmatory vote' will be tagged on. The UK populace can be expected to vote against ANY type of finalised BREXIT bill, and thus remain within the EU.

Yours... despite the name, striving for balance

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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

Friday, 25 October 2019

Climbing into the weekend

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +12pts (0.4%) at 3022. Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. Dow +0.6%. The Transports settled +1.7%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little weak, but saw a reversal, and battled upward into the early afternoon. The SPX printed 3027.39, a mere 0.59pts shy of the July historic high. The afternoon saw a little cooling, settling at 3022.

Volatility was subdued, with the VIX settling -7.7% at 12.65.


Dow 650k in 2069?

The Cramer... musing on Dow 650k
Baron with Ms. Quick of CNBC...



Half a century is a long time, and unless I get myself a time travelling DeLorean, I don't think I'll get to find out. 
--

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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