It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with
net weekly gains ranging from +3.3% (Trans), +1.9% (Nasdaq comp'), +1.2% (SPX), +1.1% (NYSE comp'), to +0.7% (Dow).
Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes
sp'500
A third consecutive net weekly gain, +36pts (1.2%) to 3022. The Friday high of 3027.39 was just 0.59pts shy of the July historic high. Weekly price momentum ticked upward, and is set to turn positive next week.
Nasdaq comp'
Tech climbed for a fourth week, settling +153pts (1.9%) to 8243. Price momentum is set to turn net positive next week.
Dow
The mighty Dow was the laggard this week, but still managed a net weekly gain of 186pts (0.7%) to 26956. Price momentum is set to turn positive next week.
NYSE comp'
The master index climbed for a third week, settling +138pts (1.1%) to 13145. Price momentum turned net positive this week. Note the key high from July of 13255.
Trans
The 'old leader' - Transports, lead the way higher this week, powering upward by 347pts (3.3%) to 10855. Weekly price momentum is at levels not seen since May. Next resistance is the July high of 10876.
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*special note: We're missing one index this week, as Stockcharts has not been providing data for the Russell 2000 since Oct'21st.
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Summary
All five indexes settled net higher for the week.
The Transports lead the way higher, with the Dow lagging.
More broadly, all five indexes are trading about their respective monthly key 10MA, as the m/t bullish trend is set to remain intact into early November.
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Looking ahead
Another very busy week is ahead, with a truck load of earnings, econ-data, and a third rate cut from Print Central.
Earnings:
M - T, SPOT, WBA, ON, BYND, GOOGL, AKAM, NXP, RIG, XPO
T - SHOP, MA, MRK, PFE, GRUB, GM, COP, AMD, AMGN, FEYE, EA
W - GE, SNE, RCL, ADP, CME, AAPL, FB, SBUX, TWLO, LYFT, ZNGA, OLED, ETSY, WDC
T - MO, BMY, KHC, CELG, MPC, ABMD, W, PINS, X, AYX, EGO
F - BABA, ABBV, XOM, CVX, AIG, NWL, CL
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Econ-data:
M - Intl' trade
T - Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con', pending home sales
W - ADP jobs, Q3 GDP (first print), EIA Pet'
FOMC announcement (2pm): Rate cut'3 of -25bps to 1.50/1.75% can be expected. Powell will host a press conf' at 2.30pm. With the Fed balance sheet soaring back upward, I imagine he will face a great many questions from the media hacks, countering his notion that "This is not QE".
T - Weekly jobs, pers' income/outlays, Chicago PMI, EIA NG
F - Monthly jobs, PMI/ISS manu', construction
*Thursday will be Halloween and end month, price action can be expected to be more dynamic on higher volume.
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Final note
Another month is soon to wrap, leaving just one sixth left of the year. Indeed, just consider that the 2020s aren't far away now.
Here in the land of yours truly, Halloween won't see the UK exit the EU. Indeed, its still possible the UK won't ever exit. A general election is set to be announced. My guess remains that an eventual BREXIT bill will be passed, but that a 'confirmatory vote' will be tagged on. The UK populace can be expected to vote against ANY type of finalised BREXIT bill, and thus remain within the EU.
Yours... despite the name, striving for balance
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.
Saturday, 26 October 2019
Friday, 25 October 2019
Climbing into the weekend
US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +12pts (0.4%) at 3022. Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. Dow +0.6%. The Transports settled +1.7%.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
US equities opened a little weak, but saw a reversal, and battled upward into the early afternoon. The SPX printed 3027.39, a mere 0.59pts shy of the July historic high. The afternoon saw a little cooling, settling at 3022.
Volatility was subdued, with the VIX settling -7.7% at 12.65.
Dow 650k in 2069?
Baron with Ms. Quick of CNBC...
Half a century is a long time, and unless I get myself a time travelling DeLorean, I don't think I'll get to find out.
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk
Goodnight from London
--
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For details and the latest offers, see: Permabeardoomster.com
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
US equities opened a little weak, but saw a reversal, and battled upward into the early afternoon. The SPX printed 3027.39, a mere 0.59pts shy of the July historic high. The afternoon saw a little cooling, settling at 3022.
Volatility was subdued, with the VIX settling -7.7% at 12.65.
Dow 650k in 2069?
![]() |
| The Cramer... musing on Dow 650k |
Half a century is a long time, and unless I get myself a time travelling DeLorean, I don't think I'll get to find out.
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk
Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service.
For details and the latest offers, see: Permabeardoomster.com
Thursday, 24 October 2019
The Draghi legacy
US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +5pts (0.2%) at 3010. Nasdaq comp' +0.8%. Dow -0.1%. The Transports settled -0.5%.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
US equities opened on a positive note, but the gains were shaky right from the open.
In early morning, yours truly noted...
... well, 14mins to be precise...
Trump took the first swipe at Print Central in some weeks. Indeed, it would seem that Trump does not realise that the Fed has already spun up the printers.
-
The afternoon saw further minor chop, leaning upward into the close to settle at 3010, but notably under the opening high of 3016. Volatility remained subdued, with the VIX settling -2.1% at 13.71. S/t outlook still offers significant downside to tag/fill four gaps to 2911/2893.
The Draghi legacy
Today saw the President of the ECB - Mario Draghi, host his last meeting and press conf'. One of the media hacks asked about his legacy, with his response to "never give up". Whilst I can respect that sentiment, Draghi leaves behind a trail of horror.
Exhibit 'A' - Deutsche Bank (DB), monthly,
Draghi took over the ECB Nov'1st 2011, when DB opened at $32.19. Today, DB settled at $7.89.
I could highlight many other European financials, most of which have been ground to dust across the past eight years. Negative rates are a poison to the financials, and it remains the height of irony, that the institution tasked to protect the European economy, has consistently harmed it.
Lagarde will take the helm Nov'1st 2019, with rates at -0.50% and monthly QE of €20bn. Its safe to say that in addition to requesting fiscal stimulus from various EU governments, she will cut rates toward -1.00%, and increase QE to €40/50bn by mid 2020.
I will close on the note that whilst the current mainstream media hacks continue to pander and fawn to the central banks, the financial historians of the 22nd century won't be so lenient.
--
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk
Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service.
For details and the latest offers, see: Permabeardoomster.com
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
US equities opened on a positive note, but the gains were shaky right from the open.
In early morning, yours truly noted...
... well, 14mins to be precise...
Trump took the first swipe at Print Central in some weeks. Indeed, it would seem that Trump does not realise that the Fed has already spun up the printers.
-
The afternoon saw further minor chop, leaning upward into the close to settle at 3010, but notably under the opening high of 3016. Volatility remained subdued, with the VIX settling -2.1% at 13.71. S/t outlook still offers significant downside to tag/fill four gaps to 2911/2893.
The Draghi legacy
![]() | |
| Note the negative German and French bond yields |
Today saw the President of the ECB - Mario Draghi, host his last meeting and press conf'. One of the media hacks asked about his legacy, with his response to "never give up". Whilst I can respect that sentiment, Draghi leaves behind a trail of horror.
Exhibit 'A' - Deutsche Bank (DB), monthly,
Draghi took over the ECB Nov'1st 2011, when DB opened at $32.19. Today, DB settled at $7.89.
I could highlight many other European financials, most of which have been ground to dust across the past eight years. Negative rates are a poison to the financials, and it remains the height of irony, that the institution tasked to protect the European economy, has consistently harmed it.
Lagarde will take the helm Nov'1st 2019, with rates at -0.50% and monthly QE of €20bn. Its safe to say that in addition to requesting fiscal stimulus from various EU governments, she will cut rates toward -1.00%, and increase QE to €40/50bn by mid 2020.
I will close on the note that whilst the current mainstream media hacks continue to pander and fawn to the central banks, the financial historians of the 22nd century won't be so lenient.
--
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk
Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service.
For details and the latest offers, see: Permabeardoomster.com
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