Climbing into the weekend

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +41pts (1.4%) at 2952. Nasdaq comp' +1.4%. Dow +1.4%. The Transports settled +1.0%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities saw a pre-market swing from around -9pts to +7, on what was arguably perceived as 'semi-Goldilocks' jobs data. The BLS offered net September gains of 136k, with a headline jobless rate of 3.5% I'll leave you, dear reader, as to whether that merits as a 'booming economy' - as Kudlow et al, continue to tout.

Trump chimed in...

.. and later appeared...

Trump's China talk helped push the SPX to new highs, with a high of 2953 in the closing hour, and settling at 2952.

Powell, along with a wheel barrow of other fed officials, appeared in the afternoon...

In Dec'2018, Powell was confidently touting 2-3 rate hikes in 2019. It remains bizarre how almost everyone is still giving any degree of credence to Print Central. Whether its their general outlook on the economy, or their interest rate and balance sheet intentions, they are often grossly wrong.

Volatility melted lower into the weekend, settling -10.9% at 17.04. S/t outlook offers another equity rollover, and the issue will then be whether the spike low of 2855 is broken under, or a higher low.
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Weakening econ-data

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +23pts (0.8%) at 2910 (intra low 2855). Nasdaq comp' +1.1%. Dow +0.5%. The Transports settled +0.4%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in chop mode, but took a significant swing lower on ISM service sector data - printing 52.6 vs 55.5est. Prior month was 56.4, and indeed, even the service sector is weakening toward recession.

The mainstream are finally starting to recognise that we'll see FOUR rate cuts this year...

Remember how at the end of last year, the mainstream - not least the Federal Reserve, were touting 2 or 3 rate HIKES. Ohh, how things have changed!

Volatility spiked to 21.44 with sp'2855, but that was fractionally below the Wed' high, and made for a s/t double top, itself a divergence to the new cycle low in equities. S/t outlook will favour the bulls into the weekend, to the 2924/40 gap zone, on 'semi-Goldilocks jobs data'.
 
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Wednesday washout

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -52pts (1.8%) at 2887. Nasdaq comp' -1.6%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -2.3% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers a bounce to the 2924/40 zone.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened broadly lower, and spiralled into the afternoon, with the SPX printing a low of 2874. The late afternoon saw a bounce to 2897, but settling at 2887.

Meanwhile...

With the US President more focused on the impeachment issue, he is mostly too busy to take a swipe at the fed, but is clearly watching equities closely.

Volatility spiked, with the VIX printing 21.46, and settling +10.8% at 20.56. S/t outlook offers a bounce to the new upside gap of 2924/40.  
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Its 100% autumn

Air China descending into the land of geo-political chaos

Autumn chill, but at least its sunny

Next full moon is Oct'13th

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Goodnight from London
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