Permabear Doomster

Thursday, 26 September 2019

More failing garbage

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, sp -7pts (0.2%) at 2977. Nasdaq comp' -0.6%. Dow -0.3%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and -1.1% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and soon leaned a little weak. With the early pricing for Peloton IPO offering $26/25s, the market turned moderately lower to 2963. There was yet another latter day recovery to turn fractionally positive in the closing hour, but settling -7pts to 2977.

Volatility saw a mixed day, with the VIX printing a high of 17.09, and settling +0.7% at 16.07. S/t outlook favours further equity cooling to the sp'2920s, which would arguably sync with VIX 19/20s.

More failing garbage

The cheerleaders were naturally rather pleased with the opening bell at the Nasdaq...

Peloton (PTON) eventually opened at $27.00, saw an early high of $27.98, a closing hour low of $24.75, with a micro rally to settle -11.2% at $25.76.

1min candle chart

On any basis... it was a gross failure, with most other recently listed stocks - such as SDC, CHWY, and NET, similarly getting the smack down.

It is the case that Mr Market is increasingly intolerant of tier'1 loss making corporate garbage. This is perhaps one of the healthiest signs we've seen in some years. We actually have a market that is discriminating against newly listed companies that don't turn a profit.

Garbage!

Darkening skies

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Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 25 September 2019

Midweek swing

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +18pts (0.6%) at 2984. Nasdaq comp' +1.0%. Dow +0.6%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and +1.1% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, saw a mini washout to sp'2952, before battling back upward into the late afternoon. The closing hour saw a new intraday high of 2989, and settling at 2984.

Meanwhile...

Print Central wheeled out Bullard onto CNBC, who touted that the biggest threat is trade. Powell's (eventual) successor also called for at least one further rate cut of -25bps before year end.

Volatility saw a morning spike high of 18.45, but then melted back lower, with the VIX settling -6.4% at 15.96. S/t outlook offers another swing lower to the sp'2920s, which would likely equate to VIX 19/20s.
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Through the trees

Tuesday, 24 September 2019

Turnaround Tuesday

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -25pts (0.8%) at 2966. Nasdaq comp' -1.5%. Dow -0.5%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and -1.6% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

They don't call it turnaround Tuesday for nothing. In today's case, equities opened moderately higher, with the SPX maxing out at 3007. The morning saw minor cooling to fractional declines. News that Lewis proposed Trump to be impeached, gave the algo-bots the excuse to drive the market lower.

The afternoon saw the market whipsaw from 2957, on Trump announcing he will release a full transcript of a phone call with the Ukrainian PM.

Volatility saw an early low of 14.33, and spiked to 17.55 on the impeachment chatter, with the VIX settling +14.3% to 17.05.

S/t outlook offers early Wednesday upside, but renewed downside to the sp'2920s with VIX 19/20 appears probable within a few days.

Meanwhile...

The BREXIT chaos continues, as the UK supreme court ruled that PM Johnson's suspension of parliament was unlawful.

Whilst Johnson continues to tout he'll get BREXIT done by Halloween, I don't see it happening. Instead, another election is probable, this time with Corbyn's Labour party winning (or at least leading a coalition). Any subsequent deal would then be put to the UK populace via a referendum, and I'd expect them to vote against ANY kind of deal, and thus the UK would remain part of the EU.
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Sunshine for the equity bears