Tears in Rain

 US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +14pts (0.5%) at 3019. Nasdaq comp' +0.8%. Dow -0.3%.  The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and +1.6% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately weak, but there was an early reversal, with the SPX and Nasdaq comp' breaking new historic highs in the closing hour.

Volatility remained in melt mode, with the VIX settling -4.3% at 12.07. S/t equity price structure is an ascending wedge, and leans to s/t cooling. Tomorrow is Thursday, which inherently leans to the bears. With the ECB in early morning, and further earnings, it should be enough to keep most awake!
-

Meanwhile...

Whilst many are focused on the very s/t, JPM's Michele is boldly touting the US 10yr yield to drop to 0.0% percent 'within a few years'. I have to agree with that.
--


Blade Runner is a personal favourite...



Hauer was a superb actor. He did a man's job. Finished. 
--

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service. 
For details and the latest offers, see: permabeardoomster.com

 

Tuesday gains

US equity indexes closed moderately higher,  sp +20pts (0.7%) at 3005. Nasdaq comp' +0.6%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.9% and +0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers another rollover, with natural target of 2971/41.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, but price action was choppy. There was a secondary wave higher into the late afternoon. Volatility remains broadly subdued, with the VIX settling -6.8% at 12.61. I do not expect the recent historic high of 3017 to be broken above before rate cut'1. Instead, I'd look for a cooling wave to 2971/41.

Rate cut views

First, its notable that only a collective 24% expect 3 or 4 rate cuts before year end. Second, almost a quarter expect rates to be held next Wednesday.

Yours truly holds to a July 31st rate cut of -25bps to 2.00/2.25%, with a probable early end to the QT program. I expect 3 or 4 rate cuts before year end, and that doesn't even assume any recessionary econ-data.
--

Koreans departing London

Even some English are making an escape

... as its just another day on the London streets

New PM Boris Johnson, along with London Major Khan have a mission impossible challenge. Maybe they'll also just fly away to a far better place? 
--

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service. 
For details and the latest offers, see: permabeardoomster.com

 

Starting positive

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, sp +8pts (0.3%) at 2985. Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and -0.2% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities began the week on a slightly positive note, although the gains were pretty shaky at times. Volatility remained relatively subdued, with the VIX settling -6.4% at 13.53. The s/t cyclical setup favours the bulls early Tuesday.

Meanwhile...

In early morning, the US President took a triple tweet swipe at Print Central...

Does Trump recognise the fed won't cut by -50bps next week? In any case, it should be clear, whenever the market next plunges, or with any kind of weakening econ-data, Trump has his scapegoat already selected. Bullard remains on track to replace Powell... sooner, rather than later.
--

Descending into London.. where a new Prime Minister is due Tuesday.

A fine summer's day.

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service. 
For details and the latest offers, see: permabeardoomster.com