Tuesday gains

US equity indexes closed moderately higher,  sp +20pts (0.7%) at 3005. Nasdaq comp' +0.6%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.9% and +0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers another rollover, with natural target of 2971/41.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, but price action was choppy. There was a secondary wave higher into the late afternoon. Volatility remains broadly subdued, with the VIX settling -6.8% at 12.61. I do not expect the recent historic high of 3017 to be broken above before rate cut'1. Instead, I'd look for a cooling wave to 2971/41.

Rate cut views

First, its notable that only a collective 24% expect 3 or 4 rate cuts before year end. Second, almost a quarter expect rates to be held next Wednesday.

Yours truly holds to a July 31st rate cut of -25bps to 2.00/2.25%, with a probable early end to the QT program. I expect 3 or 4 rate cuts before year end, and that doesn't even assume any recessionary econ-data.
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Koreans departing London

Even some English are making an escape

... as its just another day on the London streets

New PM Boris Johnson, along with London Major Khan have a mission impossible challenge. Maybe they'll also just fly away to a far better place? 
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Starting positive

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, sp +8pts (0.3%) at 2985. Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and -0.2% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities began the week on a slightly positive note, although the gains were pretty shaky at times. Volatility remained relatively subdued, with the VIX settling -6.4% at 13.53. The s/t cyclical setup favours the bulls early Tuesday.

Meanwhile...

In early morning, the US President took a triple tweet swipe at Print Central...

Does Trump recognise the fed won't cut by -50bps next week? In any case, it should be clear, whenever the market next plunges, or with any kind of weakening econ-data, Trump has his scapegoat already selected. Bullard remains on track to replace Powell... sooner, rather than later.
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Descending into London.. where a new Prime Minister is due Tuesday.

A fine summer's day.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -1.4% (R2K), -1.2% (SPX, Nasdaq comp'), -0.9% (NYSE comp'), -0.6% (Dow), to -0.3% (Trans), but with new historic highs for the SPX, Dow, and Nasdaq comp'. Near term outlook offers some weakness ahead of rate cut'1.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (weekly candle charts)

sp'500

The sp'500 broke a new historic high of 3017, but settled net lower for the week by -37pts (1.2%) to 2976. Weekly price momentum is offering a rollover, and we have a divergent lower cycle high, relative to April. M/t rising trend will be 2850 into end month. Unless the bears can break/hold under it, the market has to be seen as mid term bullish. L/t bullish support is arguably around the monthly 10MA in the 2790s.


Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high of 8264, but settled -97pts (1.2%) to 8146.


Dow

The Dow broke a new historic high of 27398, but settled -177pts (0.6%) to 27154.


NYSE comp'

The master index settled -122pts (0.9%) to 13111.


R2K

The R2K cooled for a second consecutive week, settling -22pts (1.4%) to 1547. M/t rising trend will be around 1520 next week. If broken, next support is the key price threshold of the 1460s.


Trans

The 'old leader' - Transports, settled -33pts (0.3%) to 10604.
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Summary

All six of the US equity indexes settled net lower for the week.

The R2K lead the way lower, whilst the Transports was most resilient.

The Dow, SPX, and Nasdaq comp' broke new historic highs.

YTD price performance:

The Nasdaq comp' continues to lead the way, currently net higher for the year by +22.8%. The SPX is +18.7%, the Dow +16.4%, and the Trans +15.6%. The NYSE comp' is +15.3%, with the R2K now lagging, but still higher by a considerable +14.8%.
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Looking ahead

A very busy week is ahead, with a monstrous truck load of earnings, with econ-data that will help shape the FOMC decision in the following week. 

Earnings:

M - HAL AMTD, LOGI
T - KO, LMT, BIIB, UTX, JBLU, HAS, HOG, SNAP, V, CMG, TXN
W - BA, T, CAT, UPS, ANTM, FCX, NSC, FB, TSLA, PYPL, XLNX, LVS
T - MMM, BMY, WM, CMCSA, LUV, NEM, AMZN, INTC, GOOGL, SBUX, MGM
F - TWTR, ABBV, MCD, PSX
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Econ-data:

M -
T - FHFA house price index, existing home sales, Richmond fed'

*New UK Prime Minister to be announced.
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W - PMI comp' flash, New home sales, EIA report
T - Weekly jobs, Durable goods order, intl' trade

*ECB announcement, which might be a rate cut of -10bps to -0.50%, and threaten renewed QE (which only concluded Dec'2018).

F - GDP Q2 (first print), consensus is 1.9%, vs 3.1% Q1

*there will no be fed officials, as the blackout period is in effect until the FOMC announcement of Wed' July 31st.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.