Friday, 12 July 2019

Historic highs into the weekend

US equity indexes ended the week on a very positive note, sp +13pts (0.5%) at 3013. Nasdaq comp' +0.6%. Dow +0.9%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +2.4% and 0.8% respectively.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little higher, but it was more than enough to generate a new high in the SPX and Dow, with the Nasdaq comp' following a few hours later. The closing hour saw further new historic highs. On any basis, a very bullish end to the week.

Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX settling -4.2% at 12.39.
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A golden evening sky.

Full moon is next Tues' July 16th
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Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 11 July 2019

Fedspeak overload

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp +6pts (0.2%) at 2999. Nasdaq comp' -0.1%. Dow +0.8%.  The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and -0.5% respectively.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a marginally positive note, and the SPX got stuck just under yesterday's high of 3002. It makes for a s/t double top. A cooling wave to around 2900 isn't a stretch, ahead of rate cut'1 July 31st.

Volatility was subdued, with the VIX printing 12.65 (cash market low), and settling -0.8% at 12.93.

Meanwhile...


Powell was rather confident there is no threat of corp' debt causing any systemic issues. He added there appears no risk of 'a run on the CDOs' as happened in 2008.

Five hours and 26mins of Powell...


... across two days, made at least one bear pretty sleepy.

The fedspeak never really ends though, as Quarles was talking with the Liesman...


... Quarles is just another one of the monetary masters of Print Central, who are now boxed into cutting rates, even if they don't believe the data merits it. The Fed have to cut, as they are well aware how Mr Market would otherwise react. Far from being proactive, the fed remain reactive.
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Full moon, Wed' July 16th.

A quiet evening
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Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 10 July 2019

Powell induced SPX 3000

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, sp +13pts (0.4%) at 2993   (new historic high 3002). Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and +0.2% respectively.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

Pre-market futures were weak, but the release of Powell's prepared remarks at 8.30am (the timing by the fed was carefully scheduled) saw futures swing to moderate gains. The SPX broke above giant psy'3000 just before 10am.


Powell, and an appropriately capped Art Cashin

The SPX printed 3002, before a moderate cooling wave to 2984, before a secondary wave higher to 2999. The closing hour saw minor chop.  Volatility was ground lower, with the VIX settling -7.5% at 13.03.

Meanwhile...

Most definitely... not fake news.

Finally, with SPX 3000, the bears have started to turn on each other...



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Goodnight from London
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