Wednesday, 10 July 2019

Powell induced SPX 3000

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, sp +13pts (0.4%) at 2993   (new historic high 3002). Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and +0.2% respectively.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

Pre-market futures were weak, but the release of Powell's prepared remarks at 8.30am (the timing by the fed was carefully scheduled) saw futures swing to moderate gains. The SPX broke above giant psy'3000 just before 10am.


Powell, and an appropriately capped Art Cashin

The SPX printed 3002, before a moderate cooling wave to 2984, before a secondary wave higher to 2999. The closing hour saw minor chop.  Volatility was ground lower, with the VIX settling -7.5% at 13.03.

Meanwhile...

Most definitely... not fake news.

Finally, with SPX 3000, the bears have started to turn on each other...



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Tuesday, 9 July 2019

The historical irony

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +3pts (0.1%) at 2979. Nasdaq comp' +0.5%. Dow -0.1%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.7% and +0.1% respectively. Powell-Wednesday will be real interesting.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately lower to 2963, but then clawed back upward, and then saw minor chop across the afternoon. Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling +0,9% at 14.09.


Meanwhile, the Kudlow made a breakfast appearance with Ms. Evans...

"The economy is in great shape".
Larry did his best to appear coherent, but he simply isn't firing on all thrusters lately, for some obvious reasons. The ongoing mantra of 'the economy is great, but we need lower rates, because prices are too low", I find as twisted logic, but also an outright wilful delusion.

Regardless, rate cut'1 of -25bps to 2.00/2.25% is on schedule for July 31st. I'd accept the initial reaction to that will likely be positive, but that was also the case in Sept'2007, when almost everyone believed the economy was in great shape. Those rare few - such as Peter Schiff, were openly derided, and literally laughed at on the various financial networks.




*yes, the video quality is lousy, but it still merits highlighting.

It shall forever be a historical irony that Schiff has been largely black-listed by the mainstream financial networks, whilst Laffer, who regularly derided Schiff, was just recently given the Congressional Medal of Freedom.

see: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/19/politics/arthur-laffer-curve-medal-of-freedom-donald-trump/index.html

In many ways, if you're credited by the mainstream collective, you're probably doing something wrong.
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Another uninspiring day
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Goodnight from London
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Monday, 8 July 2019

Starting weak

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -14pts (0.5%) at 2975. Nasdaq comp' -0.8%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.6% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers an 'interesting' Wednesday.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a moderately weak note, and slipped into chop mode into the afternoon, still leaning on the weaker side. Volatility picked up, with the VIX peaking at 14.44, and settling +5.1% at 13.96.

Meanwhile, Trump continues to bash the fed...


... suggesting the Dow would be 5000 to 10000 points higher, were it not for the actions of the fed.
Make of that, what you will.
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Somewhat moody summer skies
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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