Friday, 28 June 2019

June settles

US equity indexes ended the week/month/Q2/H1 on a positive note, sp +16pts (0.6%) at 2941. Nasdaq comp' +0.5%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.5% and +1.3% respectively.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, although yet again, the gains were pretty shaky, with most indexes turning briefly red. Price resumed upward, if very choppy into the early afternoon. The closing hour saw a mini ramp to 2943, and settling +0.6% to 2941.

Volatility was subdued, with the VIX melting lower into the weekend, settling -4.7% at 15.08.

Meanwhile, I present to you, the President of the United States of America...


A note for historic posterity, if anything.

Ohh, and today's Chicago PMI of 49.7 (prior 54.2) does merit recessionary alarm bells. Yes, its just one print under the key 50.0 threshold, but it should spook the mainstream cheerleaders who continue to believe that everything is just fine.
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Another 'too big to fly' monster

The sun sets on June, Q2, and H1
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Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 27 June 2019

Choppy gains

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +11pts (0.4%) at 2924. Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.3% and +1.9% respectively. S/t price structure leans to the bears, with basic target of sp'2850/40s.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, although the gains were once again pretty shaky. Equities leaned back upward into the mid afternoon with a high of 2929, and settling +11pts to 2924.

Volatility was subdued, with the VIX settling -2.4% at 15.82. Friday is end month, Q2, and H1, expect far higher volume as the big money re-position for July/Q3/H2 ! S/t price structure is a bear flag, and it threatens a break under the 2900 threshold. That is clearly more viable next Monday, after the G20 is out of the way.
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Departing London, still part of the EU

A moment of peace
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 26 June 2019

Midweek weak bounce

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp -3pts (0.1%) at 2913.  Nasdaq comp' +0.3%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.7% and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook favours the bears.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, partly inspired on a CNBC report that Munchin said trade talks "... we are about 90% of the way...", but CNBC soon changed that to "... we were about 90% of the way...". That didn't help, with equities almost cooling to breakeven. Price action was choppy, and leaned lower into the close.

Volatility churned, with the VIX settling -0.4% at 16.21. The s/t cyclical setup offers Thurs/Friday equity cooling, although end month/Q1/H1 issues will confuse things.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
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