Choppy gains

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +11pts (0.4%) at 2924. Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.3% and +1.9% respectively. S/t price structure leans to the bears, with basic target of sp'2850/40s.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, although the gains were once again pretty shaky. Equities leaned back upward into the mid afternoon with a high of 2929, and settling +11pts to 2924.

Volatility was subdued, with the VIX settling -2.4% at 15.82. Friday is end month, Q2, and H1, expect far higher volume as the big money re-position for July/Q3/H2 ! S/t price structure is a bear flag, and it threatens a break under the 2900 threshold. That is clearly more viable next Monday, after the G20 is out of the way.
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Departing London, still part of the EU

A moment of peace

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Midweek weak bounce

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp -3pts (0.1%) at 2913.  Nasdaq comp' +0.3%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.7% and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook favours the bears.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, partly inspired on a CNBC report that Munchin said trade talks "... we are about 90% of the way...", but CNBC soon changed that to "... we were about 90% of the way...". That didn't help, with equities almost cooling to breakeven. Price action was choppy, and leaned lower into the close.

Volatility churned, with the VIX settling -0.4% at 16.21. The s/t cyclical setup offers Thurs/Friday equity cooling, although end month/Q1/H1 issues will confuse things.

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VIX threatening problems

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -28pts (0.9%) at 2917. Nasdaq comp' -1.5%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.9% and -0.6% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, but then leaned weak into the late afternoon. Comments from Bullard - that a 50bps cut in July would be 'overdone', didn't help.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling +6.7% at 16.28. Daily momentum is set to turn positive within 1-2 days, and that does offer a push to the key 20 threshold, and that would clearly bode for sig' equity downside.

Meanwhile... the US President continues to tout equities, and thanks himself for this.

As noted yesterday, it won't take much more than a 4-5% cooling wave to see Trump riled up, and calling for Powell to be replaced by uber-doves Bullard or Kashkari.

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